Tamil Nadu Assembly polls: DMK-led alliance set to retain power, AIADMK-led alliance to give close fight, predicts opinion poll

Stalin and Rahul Gandhi

• DMK and AIADMK alliances face a close contest in Tamil Nadu polls
• Opinion polls show DMK and AIADMK with similar seat projections
• Vijay's TVK party projected to win only 2-8 seats

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The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led (DMK) alliance in Tamil Nadu is poised for a tough fight against All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led (AIADMK) opposition, according to Vote Tracker by VoteVibe. However, the DMK is expected to retain power.

The opinion poll gives DMK-led alliance 113-123 seats, whereas the AIADMK-led alliance is poised to get 106-116 seats. However, a big reading from the poll is that Vijay's TVK is almost a non-existent party with 2-8 seats. Almost 42 per cent of the people, included in the poll suggested that it will be a bipolar contest.

Vote Tracker also indicates that MK Stalin is ahead in the list of preference for the chief ministerial face. Although leading by a slim margin, he is leading Edappadi K. Palaniswami by 2 per cent.

This gap shows welfare has softened anger but not reversed anti-incumbency. The early momentum seen since January has now plateaued instead of rising further.

Voters are distinguishing between receiving benefits and evaluating governance quality. As a result, DMK is no longer gaining ground despite continued spending, and underlying dissatisfaction continues to shape the voter's mood.

Multiple disruptions are affecting Vijay’s political momentum. Legal scrutiny, political targeting, and personal controversies are weakening his transition into a credible leader. This has contributed to a drop in projections, with TVK falling from around 25 seats earlier to 2-6 seats now.

Additionally, an opinion poll conducted by IANS-Matrize suggests that the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) may be poised to dislodge the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government in Tamil Nadu.

The survey projects the AIADMK-led alliance to receive 39-40 per cent of the vote share, potentially translating into 114–127 seats in the 234-member Assembly-- enough to bring it close to forming the government. Meanwhile, the ruling DMK alliance is estimated to secure 37-38 per cent of the vote, which could result in 104–114 seats. A key highlight of the survey is the rise of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his newly formed party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Elections to the 234-member Assembly was last held in the state on April 6, 2021 in a single phase. The DMK ended the decade-long rule of the AIADMK, and MK Stalin was sworn in as the 12th chief minister of Tamil Nadu. The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) secured 159 seats, including 133 for the DMK, marking an absolute majority for the first time in 25 years. The NDA won 75 seats, with 66 for AIADMK.