Haryana and J&K exit poll predictions: Did pollsters hit the mark in the past

Voters wait in a queue to cast their votes at a polling station during the Haryana Assembly elections, in Rohtak district

Exit poll predictions for Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have been both accurate and misjudged in the past, with some pollsters making accurate predictions while others either overestimating or underestimating performance of certain parties.

As voting in Haryana wraps up today, attention of voters will shift to the exit polls ahead of the results on October 8. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vying for a third consecutive term in the state, while the Congress is aiming to reclaim power after a decade in opposition.

2014 Haryana exit polls

In 2014, exit polls had accurately forecasted the BJP's victory. Majority of the pollsters had predicted a clear win for the BJP. India TV – CVoter, ABP News – Nielsen, Times Now, and News 24 – Chanakya projected seat ranges of 37 to 52 for the BJP.

Two polls — News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen — predicted that the BJP would achieve a majority, while Times Now and India TV-CVoter accurately forecasted Congress's seat count. News24-Chanakya was closest to predicting the INLD's actual total.

Haryana 2019: Most pollsters misjudged the outcome

In 2019, many pollsters misjudged the outcome, expecting a decisive BJP win instead of a hung Assembly.
Some estimates suggested the saffron party would win over 70 seats. An average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP would win 61 seats and the Congress would be far behind at 18.

Seven of the polls suggested the BJP would achieve a majority, with NewsX-Pollstrat projecting as high as 75-80 seats. Only India Today-Axis predicted a tally of 32-44 seats for the BJP.

India Today-Axis's prediction of 30-42 for Congress proved to be the most accurate.

J&K 2014 exit poll prediction

Jammu and Kashmir, where the last assembly elections were held in 2014, the C-Voter exit poll had predicted that no party would get the majority figure in the then 87-member House.

PDP had emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, followed by the BJP with 25 seats, the National Conference with 15 seats, and the Congress securing 12 seats.