Assam assembly polls 2026: Can Badruddin Ajmal revive AIUDF's dwindling fortunes?

All India United Democratic Front chief Badruddin Ajmal.

• AIUDF plans alliance with AIMIM for Assam polls
• Ajmal fields himself in Binnakandi, party announces 21 candidates
• AIUDF's support base is shrinking after 2024 election defeat

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If political meanings are attached to statements made by leaders leading up to polls, then All Indian United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal's willingness to form an alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Assam, is indicative of party's present standing and why it thinks it is 'electorally expedient' for the party to be in an alliance with the Hyderabad-based outfit.

Ajmal’s AIUDF on Tuesday released its second list of candidates for the April 9 election, and has fielded Ajmal in the Binnakandi constituency in Central Assam’s Hojai district. So far, the AIUDF has announced candidates in a total of 21 constituencies. AIMIM has not contested any election in the state, and Owaisi has consistently refused to come to Assam due to the presence of Ajmal already.

The AIUDF, once a significant force in the state's Muslim-majority belts and a spoiler in Congress calculations, was wiped out in the 2024 general elections, with Ajmal himself suffering a landslide defeat. After the debacle in 2024 Lok Sabha election, party’s future is at stake as the results indicate the Muslims, its backbone, gravitated back to Congress.

Revisiting AIUDF's impressive debut

The AIUDF, born after the Supreme Court scrapped the allegedly pro-foreigners Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act in 2005, sought to do what its predecessor, the United Minority Front could not — make the Bengali-origin Muslims a political force.

In the 2006 Assam election, the AIUDF made an impressive debut, winning 10 seats and emerging as a factor behind the Congress’s tally dropping from 71 to 53. The state leadership of the Assam Congress, sensing the threat Ajmal posed to its captive Muslim vote base, felt it necessary not to give him further room to grow.

In its electoral debut in the 2006 Assembly elections, it won 10 of the state’s 126 seats; in the next state elections in 2011, its tally rose to 18, making it the primary Opposition in Assam. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, it managed to win three out of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats. This was a marked improvement from its tally of one in the 2009 general elections.

Tarun Gogoi, then chief minister, expressed in no uncertain terms to the Congress high command, which was not averse to embracing Ajmal. However, Gogoi made it clear that he would accept Ajmal only if the AIUDF merged with the Congress.

The branding it finds hard to shrug off

Branding the AIUDF as the BJP’s “B-Team” is also part of the Congress’s strategy to prevent a split in Muslim votes. The party highlights Ajmal and his family’s “connections with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma” as part of these efforts, particularly while canvassing in minority-dominated districts.

“Ajmal is nothing but a mouthpiece for the BJP like some other parties, including the AIMIM. He has nothing whatsoever to do with the UPA (then Congress-led United Progressive Alliance) as he claims,” AICC general secretary (communications) Jairam Ramesh had said in a statement in 2023.

Party's dwindling fortunes

Political observers in Assam feel that the party’s core support base – Bengali-speaking Muslims, many of whom trace their roots to erstwhile East Pakistan or what is now Bangladesh – may be drifting away from it. Political watchers opine that there is a perception now that aligning with AIUDF will only make their lives more difficult, because of the party's image as a protector of Bangladeshis.