IMD weather update: These states to face thunderstorms, heavy rainfall until Oct 18

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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a week of significant rainfall and thunderstorm activity across southern India, placing Kerala, Tamil Nadu and several neighbouring states on alert for isolated heavy spells until October 18.

According to a report by TOI citing the IMD's All India Weather Forecast and Warning Bulletin, the southern peninsular region will remain under the influence of multiple weather systems. This comes even as the southwest monsoon continues its withdrawal from most parts of central and eastern India.

A week of widespread wet weather

The IMD’s detailed outlook, issued on Sunday evening, predicts light to moderate rainfall or thundershowers over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam throughout the coming week.

The most intense activity is expected to be concentrated in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which are likely to experience isolated heavy rainfall events during the entire period.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka are also set for increased rainfall activity on October 13 and 14.

The IMD has advised residents and travellers in these regions to plan their immediate travel accordingly and avoid unnecessary journeys in areas expecting the most severe conditions.

Thunderstorms and gusty winds to lash region

Adding to the concerns, the weather office has warned of thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds reaching speeds of 30–40 km/h.

These storms are likely over Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema and Telangana between October 13 and 16. The Lakshadweep islands were also expected to experience similar stormy conditions today.

Despite the severe weather warnings, the IMD has not issued any advisories for fishermen operating off these coasts during this period.

Contrasting conditions across India

While the south prepares for a drenching, the weather picture is markedly different elsewhere in the country. The TOI report indicates that most parts of central and northern India, including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Delhi, are expected to remain dry through the week.

In the east, Odisha may see isolated heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and lightning on October 13 and 14, with limited activity in Chhattisgarh and the Vidarbha region from October 14 to 16.

In the northeast, states including Assam and Meghalaya are likely to see thunderstorms with lightning, though rainfall activity is expected to decrease gradually.

Temperature divergence and monsoon withdrawal

The temperature data from October 12 highlighted the climatic contrasts. While minimum temperatures were markedly above normal in parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar, central India saw cooler nights, with Indore in Madhya Pradesh recording the country's lowest minimum temperature at 14.0 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, the monsoon’s retreat is advancing. Conditions are now favourable for its further withdrawal from remaining parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Telangana within the next 24 hours. The northeastern states are expected to see the monsoon withdraw over the next two to three days.

As the week progresses, the IMD continues to monitor evolving weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, which will dictate the rainfall patterns for southern India, even as the rest of the country begins to transition into a drier post-monsoon phase.