Delhi curious about its 'date with the monsoon' as IMD updates forecast for India

Delhi rain

India is set for an above-normal monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced in its long-range forecast on Tuesday, bringing hope for strong agricultural output and water availability across the country. The southwest monsoon, which accounts for nearly 75% of the country's annual rainfall, is expected to drench large parts of the subcontinent, with particularly encouraging projections for the north-west region.

The IMD said that while the overall monsoon for northwest India is likely to be “normal” - falling within 92% to 108% of the long-period average (LPA) - some pockets within the region are forecast to receive even higher rainfall. Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh, part of a key meteorological subdivision, are projected to see above-normal rainfall, with totals expected to exceed 114% of the LPA. For this subdivision, the climatological monsoon normal is 431 mm, though for Delhi specifically, the LPA stands at 640.4 mm, TOI reported.

The forecast comes at the end of an extraordinary month for Delhi, which has already recorded its wettest May on record. According to the IMD, the national capital logged 186.4 mm of rainfall this month, far surpassing historical averages and beating all previous records for May. The city was battered by five major storms, bringing intense downpours and powerful winds throughout the month.

On May 2, Delhi received 77 mm of rainfall during a severe dust storm, with winds reaching 80 kmph. That set the tone for a month dominated by unstable weather. A dust storm on May 15 reduced visibility to just 1,200–1,500 metres and caused a spike in pollution levels. On May 17, gusts touched 74 kmph, followed by another bout on May 21 with wind speeds up to 79 kmph. The most violent storm arrived on May 25, dumping 81.4 mm of rain and unleashing gusts that peaked at 82 kmph.

Thanks to these frequent rain-bearing systems, Delhi has not seen a single heatwave day this month — a stark contrast to May 2023, when the city endured six consecutive days of temperatures above 45°C in the final week. This year, cooler-than-normal daytime temperatures have prevailed.

The IMD has also projected that June 2025 is likely to witness fewer-than-usual heatwave days across most parts of northwest India, as well as adjoining regions in central and eastern India, offering further respite from extreme summer conditions.

IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra attributed this shift to the expected robust monsoon activity. “During June 2025, below-normal heatwave days are likely over most parts of northwest India and adjoining areas of central and east India,” he said, as quoted by TOI.

As May draws to a close, the IMD has issued a yellow alert for Thursday and Friday, forecasting more rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds between 30 and 60 kmph. This volatile pattern is expected to continue into the early days of June, further keeping temperatures in check. The maximum temperature on Tuesday reached 37.4°C, still three notches below the seasonal norm, as per TOI.

Delhi typically sees the monsoon arrive around June 28 and the current conditions suggest it may be on schedule this year. In 2023, the city saw a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon, but managed to register 1,029.9 mm of rainfall, 62% above the normal. Even more remarkable was 2021, when Delhi recorded 1,176.4 mm, the highest in nearly six decades.