WORLD
Would Putin stop if he wins in Ukraine? Let’s not find out
A debate is underway, particularly in Washington, on whether to pressure Ukraine into a negotiated settlement with Russia or help its continued defence. If Putin has no further ambitions beyond Ukraine, then the interests of Europe and the US might indeed be best served by forcing Kyiv to settle by starving it of the means to fight — as brutal a betrayal as that would be
BUSINESS
Ukraine War: Macron's 'Whatever It Takes' is more than PR
Macron isn’t going to send soldiers to the killing fields of Donbas, but he was signaling a new urgency in Europe’s approach to the war. Now he needs to deliver it. After Kyiv’s forces suffered battlefield losses in large part for lack of critical ammunition from the US and Europe, Macron's real point was to show the Kremlin that whatever happens in the US, Europe won’t give up on Ukraine
WORLD
Europe may now be Ukraine’s only hope. That’s scary
The rate at which Russian cruise and ballistic missiles are striking Ukrainian cities has risen to 50% from about 10% as air defense missiles supplies run low. On the front lines, now that Russia is on the offensive again it needs about three times the force of Ukraine to break through
WORLD
Trump may keep the US in NATO, but the damage is done
Trump has made little secret of his disdain for the alliance — and his admiration of Vladimir Putin, its principal nemesis. Trump did propose pulling the US out in 2018 but Congress passed legislation requiring a two-thirds Senate majority for that to happen. Yet the fail-safe isn’t enough to stop Trump destroying the alliance from within if he wants to
WORLD
Orban’s Hungary is a problem NATO can manage
Orban’s flirtations with Moscow and Beijing are an irritant, but they could be far worse. Geography matters in security calculations, and it’s wiser to have Hungary inside the tent than out. But EU and NATO shouldn't be afraid to punish Hungary when it crosses red lines
WORLD
Don’t confuse Netanyahu’s interests with Israel’s
Israel’s prime minister is fighting corruption charges in court and will face a political reckoning over Oct. 7’s security failures as soon as the war in Gaza ends. Under cover of the country’s blinding rage and deep yearning for long-term security, Netanyahu is fighting to secure his own political survival and the dark Israeli future that his extremist allies demand to ensure it. These may be the nation’s current leaders, but they are friends to nobody but themselves
BUSINESS
The new multipolar world mimics the US at its worst
The US proved a very flawed global policeman, but the world has begun to normalise and multiply the very worst of its behaviours. In the brave new multipolar world, which so much of the planet wanted and the redistribution of technology and economic power made inevitable, we now have multiple agents of chaos
WORLD
Saving Gaza means pressing Iran as well as Israel
Changing Israel’s behavior toward the occupied territories is an essential requirement for restoring stability in the Middle East, but it’s only part of the solution. Israel won’t relent until the root threat posed to it by Iran and its proxies also gets addressed
WORLD
What a truce in Gaza means for the war
Such a short pause can’t achieve the political aims of either side, and the main challenge will be for the combatants to stay protected while observing it — one reason even temporary ceasefires tend to be volatile. The IDF’s task is to eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities, and that job is far from complete, making it unlikely that Israel would allow the pause to extend to a more permanent truce
WORLD
This rare UN peacekeeping success offers model for Gaza
The transition force for Gaza should have a clear mandate to use weapons, include trained police, and its composition should be chosen carefully to ensure locals trust the peacekeepers they meet, while Israel can trust its overall commanders. This is hard but it can be done by the UN, because it has been done before
WORLD
Peace deal with Russia demands fighting, funding and arming
Ukraine is unlikely to again secure the kind of front-line breakthroughs it achieved around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson last year, that dramatically changed the terms of any eventual peace talks in its favour. But to get a deal that Ukraine can accept and Russia will respect is going to require fighting, arming and talking at the same time
WORLD
Expelling Palestinians to the Sinai can’t be Israel’s answer
A policy that fed Hamas and encouraged the expansion of Jewish settlements on the West Bank to weaken the more moderate Palestinian Authority has left Israel with no good choices. A second “Nakba,’’ or catastrophe, as the Palestinians call their 1948 expulsion, is no way to ensure Israel’s security
WORLD
Amid Israel-Hamas war, some still see a path to coexistence
If Israelis and Palestinians start to acknowledge each other's pain, a path to peace is possible. Israel just might be able to turn the current tragedy into a pivot that breaks the cycle of war
WORLD
Biden is right in urging Israel to delay Gaza invasion
The advice from close friends against letting anger — and therefore Hamas — decide the pace has few downsides. Netanyahu surely knows that even if dramatic action is popular now, that would change quickly if the war went badly. The potential human, military and strategic costs of rushing in are large
BUSINESS
Israel needs a new narrative for plan to unseat Hamas finding takers in Arab world
Middle East states that once saw a clear interest in normalising relations with Tel Aviv have bought the Hamas claims on the hospital tragedy. To regain control of the narrative, Israel needs a broader change of strategy for ordinary Palestinians, giving them reason to hope for something better once Hamas is gone
WORLD
Gaza Hospital Tragedy: The war risk stands escalated, no matter who’s to blame
We need to withhold judgment as to responsibility for this monstrous attack until the facts have been verified. The loss of innocent Palestinian life is there for all to see. The role of diplomacy in trying to prevent further escalation and civilian bloodshed have increased just as much in importance as in difficulty
BUSINESS
Xi and Putin think they’re winning — and maybe they are
In terms of a zero-sum geopolitical confrontation with the US, trouble in Ukraine and the Middle East is a win for China. Both draw on US resources and attention. As the US becomes embroiled in Israel’s revenge against Hamas in Gaza, its alliances with the Gulf Arab states will be strained, creating opportunities for Xi
BUSINESS
Hamas must be punished, but the Palestine question demands answers
Israel can’t be secure unless it first crushes Hamas and then creates a clear path toward a political settlement. How it handles Gaza’s civilians in the coming days and weeks — and ensures they have food, water and medical care needed to survive — will play a big role in deciding whether that messy, less violent future is possible
BUSINESS
Israel-Hamas War: Iran’s role in the conflict is like a Russian nesting doll
Iran is no longer as isolated or vulnerable as it once was. The Ukraine war has shuffled geopolitical alignments and possibly for the first time since the 1979 revolution, Tehran can count on powerful friends to give it at least diplomatic protection. Its role in providing Moscow with attack drones for its invasion of Ukraine has ensured that
WORLD
Netanyahu should take his own advice to avoid wider war
The prime minister’s response agenda was good, and he needs a new cabinet to execute it
BUSINESS
Putin is winning his grain war, pitting Poland against Ukraine
There are three ways Zelenskiy and his allies can respond to Putin, but none are attractive
BUSINESS
Azerbaijan has won Nagorno-Karabakh, but a bigger test is just starting
The ceasefire must first hold and safety of Karabakh’s ethnic-Armenians must be guaranteed. Or another round of mass flight or ethnic cleansing, revenge killings and punitive justice could start. That Azerbaijan denied striking civilian targets on Tuesday, even as footage showed bombs landing in urban centres, doesn't bode well
BUSINESS
Zelenskiy needs to fight corruption like he’s fighting Putin
Draconian fixes are no substitute for institutional reform
BUSINESS
Erdogan’s Putin meeting was more about damage control than grain
Turkey’s strongman is stuck in a loveless triangle with Russia and NATO
