BUSINESS
Macro Matters | It’s a puzzle why household savings in physical assets have fallen, but foreign savings offer succour
It’s necessary for household savings to rise to ensure there are enough funds for capital formation in the economy. If savings do not go up, the current account deficit will bloat when the capex cycle turns.
BUSINESS
Budget 2019 | Central govt accounts up to May underline tight fiscal position of government
Capex fell during the first two months of the fiscal year
BUSINESS
Macro Policy | India’s merchandise exports have stagnated and it is vital to improve competitiveness
Export policy in the age of Donald Trump will have to be very different. Moreover, a large part of exports are now the result of being part of global value chains and parts and semi-finished goods make their way several times across borders. A policy of currency depreciation will not work when imports form a large component of exports.
BUSINESS
Macro Matters I The backdrop to the G-20 meeting in four charts
Policy uncertainty leads to low business confidence, in turn hurting growth and investment
BUSINESS
Budget 2019: What is the reason for the slowdown in the economy?
Why did consumption growth fall so sharply in the December 2018 quarter?
BUSINESS
The Empire Strikes Back, Starring Rene Descartes
China has done very well despite the widespread perception its GDP numbers are very dodgy
BUSINESS
Policy Pulse | Four key messages from the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee
There is no consensus on how weak growth is, but as long as inflation remains low, monetary policy will be called upon to do the heavy lifting
BUSINESS
Markets | Three paradoxes in the US Fed decision
The markets can’t cheer for both -- a US Fed rate cut as well as a US-China trade deal
BUSINESS
Markets | Global fund manager survey: if investors are the most bearish since the financial crisis, why are markets so high?
Central banks will once again ride to the rescue, but monetary policy impotence is an increasing risk
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day: The foreign trade figures for May mirror slowdown in economy
Total goods import growth in May 2019 from a month ago was 4.3 percent, but crude oil imports went up 8.2 percent
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | The implications of the government’s target of making India a $5 trillion economy by 2024
A substantial jump in the growth rate is required to achieve the objective
BUSINESS
India versus Bharat: the divide in working conditions
The divergence can only be bridged by getting underemployed workers out of stagnant agriculture and into the higher productivity formal sector
INDIA
Policy matters | The urgent need for restoring credibility to India’s macro data
Arvind Subramanian has delivered the coup de grace to the new GDP series
BUSINESS
Which state has the lowest labour costs?
If the government’s numbers are correct, wages are the lowest in West Bengal, followed by Gujarat
BUSINESS
Growth in bank loans to small and micro firms is much lower than in 2013-14
The fears about Mudra loans leading to the next wave of non-performing assets may be exaggerated
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | RBI’s survey provides clues about how the Modi government shrugged off economic woes to return to power
The consumer confidence survey provides the key to the consumption slowdown
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | Who are most at risk of being unemployed in India?
There is wide variation in unemployment rates among the states
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | Wanted: A budget with credible fiscal arithmetic
The shortfall in FY19 revised estimates means that the projected numbers for FY20 will also need to be revised downwards
BUSINESS
Macro Matters | The Monetary Policy Committee should take into account the rise in manufacturing PMI in May
PMI readings were higher in January and February this year
BUSINESS
The key signals from the GDP numbers
Government consumption contributed more than a fifth of GDP growth in the March quarter
BUSINESS
Macro Matters: India is not alone—Flash PMIs show sharp deceleration in major advanced economies
In the US, the malaise is spreading to the services sector
ECONOMY
Policy Pulse | What policy makers will look for in the March quarter GDP numbers
Markets will take their cues from the expected reaction by the RBI and the government to the GDP numbers.
BUSINESS
Corporate woes: Two charts that show why it’s taking so long for capex to revive
If return on capital employed is so low, where’s the incentive to go in for capex?
BUSINESS
Policy | How the market highs can be put to good use
Selling off state-owned businesses provides an opportunity both for short-term fiscal stimulus as well as structural reform.
