BUSINESS
Economic advice for Trump and Powell: first, do no harm
The US economy has become more dynamic over the last few years, and the main goal for the president-elect and the chair of the Federal Reserve should be to keep it that way
BUSINESS
America’s jobs market has entered the twilight zone
Companies aren’t so worried that they’re letting a lot of people go, but they’re also not so confident that they’re hiring a lot of people
BUSINESS
My recession rule was meant to be broken
The Sahm rule indicates that the US is in the midst of a downturn, but it’s not quite there yet
BUSINESS
Inflation feels bad to US consumers no matter how you define it
Rising prices make Americans gloomy about the economy, even if they're not climbing as fast as they used to
BUSINESS
US: Applying Sahm recession rule to individual states is a mistake
Applying the logic of the rule to individual states would reveal that 20 of them should be in a recession, right? Instead rising unemployment rates in places such as California, New York and New Jersey actually reflect economic strength
BUSINESS
Why my recession rule could go wrong this time
A highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm Rule, based on the unemployment rate isn't being able to detect the start of a downturn in the US tthis time. The rising supply of workers that has happened post-pandemic is good for the rebalancing of the labour market, even if it shows up initially in somewhat higher unemployment rates
BUSINESS
Americans like sharing bad economic news way too much
One would think all the spending, additional wealth, and low unemployment rate would be positively talked about. Instead, Americans are deeply pessimistic, with over 40% more people expecting the economy to be worse in the next five years than better
BUSINESS
Women are an overlooked resource in the battle to tame inflation
Letting female labour force participation slip again due to the end of pandemic-era child-care aid could be risky for productivity and ultimately consumer prices
BUSINESS
Make student loans work for students
The main beneficiaries of the US government’s current program are colleges and universities
BUSINESS
Don’t forget who loses in Fed's quest to soften labour market
Lower-income workers are the ones who have come off the sidelines to fill many recent openings, and will likely be the first to suffer when jobs disappear
