Rupee set for 5th yearly loss; 65-70 becomes new normal

Set for the fifth straight year of fall in 2015, the rupee seems to have found a new bottom after hovering between two extremes of being billed the world's worst as well as the best performing currency and the experts see the range of 65-70 as the new normal. While the government announced a slew of steps and the Reserve Bank also intervened on a few occasions to support the forex market, a highly volatile trend continued to rule the exchange rates due to global headwinds through 2015, during which the Indian currency also hit a two-year low below Rs 67 mark against the US greenback. It is expected to end the year between Rs 66-67 level, down more than five per cent from its 2014-closing level of Rs 63.03 to one US dollar.

It closed at Rs 66.21 in its last trading session, while four days of trading are left in 2015. The major factors triggering the downward move included a substantial fall in foreign portfolio investments as an uncertainty prevailed for almost entire year over the long-awaited rate high in the US and the slowdown in China, a major driver of global economic growth for last few years. For most part of the year, rupee remained the worst performing currency globally, but a sharper fall in many other currencies may actually help the Indian currency end the year as among the relatively better performers.

Experts say rupee may actually end up as one of the 'best' performers among major currencies due to its much steeper yearly fall against the US dollar. Euro is down nearly 16 per cent, while Indonesian rupiah is being billed as the worst performer. Chinese yuan has also not done well.

The traders expect rupee to trade in the range of 65.50-70.00 against the US dollar in the year ahead.