Why Xi wants Trump to oppose Taiwan independence and what it means for US policy

Chinese President Xi Jinping (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to use upcoming high-level meetings with President Trump to push for a major shift in US policy: a formal statement opposing Taiwan’s independence. For Xi, this would go far beyond the Biden-era phrasing that Washington “does not support” independence. Instead, it would align the US more closely with Beijing’s position and weaken Taiwan’s international standing, the Wall Street Journal reported, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The difference between words

While the distinction between “not supporting” and “opposing” Taiwan independence may appear semantic, it carries weight in geopolitics. For Xi, such wording would mark a US move from neutrality to actively siding with Beijing, a symbolic but powerful victory that could help consolidate his domestic authority. Analysts argue that achieving this shift would be a “holy grail” for Beijing, undercutting Taipei’s confidence in US backing.

Trump’s calculus

Trump, unlike his predecessor, has avoided firm commitments on whether the US would defend Taiwan militarily. He has said doing so would weaken his negotiating position. Instead, he has highlighted a personal assurance from Xi that China would not invade Taiwan during his presidency, while calling Beijing “patient.” This ambiguity has raised questions about whether Washington is prioritizing a trade deal over its long-held security commitments.

Delicate US-Taiwan relations

Recent moves by the Trump administration have fuelled unease in Taipei. The US delayed military aid and denied Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a transit stop on American soil, prompting him to cancel a trip to Latin America. Officials said the decision was designed to avoid influencing Taiwan’s domestic politics, but critics see it as evidence of Washington soft-pedalling support for Taipei to appease Beijing.

Beijing’s persistent push

Chinese diplomats and policy advisers are pressing their US counterparts to adopt language opposing Taiwanese independence, framing it as a necessary step for “stability.” Experts say Xi views Trump’s desire for a sweeping trade deal—and his transactional approach to diplomacy—as the best opening in years to advance Beijing’s Taiwan agenda. Even if progress is incremental, Beijing believes persistent pressure could gradually erode Taiwan’s trust in Washington.

The road ahead

The coming months will test whether Trump can balance his pursuit of an economic bargain with the need to maintain deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. US officials insist their “One China” policy remains unchanged, but Beijing’s strategy is to keep pushing until Washington’s language tilts further its way. For Xi, a formal American rejection of Taiwanese independence would represent not only a diplomatic coup but a step closer to his long-term goal of reunification.