Why Trump’s push for a Ukraine cease-fire with Putin faces long odds

Why Trump’s push for a Ukraine cease-fire with Putin faces long odds

US President Donald Trump is seeking a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine by meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as next week. The White House is also pushing for a three-way meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, though Putin has so far been open only “in principle” to speaking with his Ukrainian counterpart. Trump, who once vowed to end the war within 24 hours, now faces the reality of 200 days in office without a cease-fire, CNN reported.

Shifting from charm to pressure

After months of trying to coax Putin into peace talks, Trump has adopted a tougher stance, threatening sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, including India and potentially China. He has given Moscow until Friday to agree to a cease-fire or face measures targeting its key energy customers. The move reflects Trump’s growing frustration, as US and European officials warn that Putin’s war goals—including holding on to occupied Ukrainian territory—remain unchanged.

A wary rapport between leaders

Trump and Putin have maintained frequent, often cordial contact, with calls stretching for hours. But recent conversations have cooled, with a July 3 call lasting barely an hour and lacking their usual warmth. Aides say Trump has grown increasingly sceptical, noting that Putin often signals interest in peace during discussions while Russian forces continue missile strikes and offensives in Ukraine.

European resistance to territorial concessions

A key obstacle is the West’s refusal to recognize Russia’s control over Ukrainian land seized since 2022, a non-negotiable Kremlin demand. European diplomats fear Putin may use a meeting to propose partial withdrawal in exchange for territorial recognition—an idea Trump might pressure allies to accept. Kyiv has indicated it would reject such a deal, risking a diplomatic split if Trump shifts blame for continued fighting onto Ukraine.

Domestic and geopolitical risks

If Trump meets Putin without securing progress, he must decide whether to escalate economic pressure—despite doubts about its impact—or walk away from the talks entirely. Ending US military and intelligence support, as he did earlier this year, could weaken Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and in future negotiations. Critics warn that Putin may be using the talks to buy time while advancing militarily.

A legacy-defining gamble

Despite the challenges, those close to Trump believe he will keep pursuing the deal, seeing it as a potential signature achievement of his second term. Allies like Sen. Lindsey Graham say Putin “has nobody to blame but himself” for the harder US line, while others caution that the Russian leader’s negotiating style is designed to keep Trump engaged without conceding. Whether Trump can turn personal diplomacy into a lasting peace—or be seen as outmanoeuvred—may shape his legacy as much as any domestic achievement.