Why Bangladesh’s exiled opposition leader is plotting a return before elections

Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s long-serving prime minister, was ousted last year after a student-led uprising

Tarique Rahman, the UK-based leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has said he is preparing to return to Dhaka to contest elections scheduled for February. Rahman has been in exile since 2008, facing corruption charges he insists were politically motivated. Speaking to the Financial Times in his first face-to-face English-language interview, he predicted the BNP would secure a sweeping majority, insisting, “We are confident we will win”, according to the Financial Times.

From revolution to ballot box

Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s long-serving prime minister, was ousted last year after a student-led uprising. She has since fled to India, while Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus serves as interim leader. Rahman argues that the revolution will only be complete when a “credible” vote is held. Yunus has banned the Awami League, Hasina’s party, from political activities, calling it “fascist.” Rahman echoed the charge, but said the BNP was ready to partner with student groups that played a central role in the protests.

A fragile economy in transition

The next government will inherit serious challenges. Bangladesh’s crucial garment sector is under pressure from US tariffs, while ties with India remain strained after Hasina’s flight. Rahman outlined his vision of diversifying the economy by turning Bangladesh into a “supply hub” for global e-commerce giants like Amazon, eBay and Alibaba. He also pledged a “Bangladesh before all” foreign policy aimed at resetting relations with India.

Rival dynasties, familiar tensions

Bangladesh’s politics have long been shaped by dynastic rivalry. Hasina is the daughter of independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, assassinated in 1975. Rahman’s father, former president Ziaur Rahman, was also assassinated, in 1981. After his death, Rahman’s mother, Khaleda Zia, led the BNP for decades. Both families remain central to the nation’s bitterly divided political landscape.

Corruption shadows the BNP

Rahman faces persistent allegations of corruption. During the BNP’s last spell in power, Bangladesh was ranked the world’s most corrupt country for four consecutive years by Transparency International. A leaked US cable once described him as a “symbol of kleptocratic government.” He dismissed these claims as “false narratives,” insisting that cases against him have since been dropped and highlighting that the BNP created the country’s Anti-Corruption Commission.

Questions over fair elections

Although polls show the BNP as frontrunner, not everyone is convinced of a level playing field. The leader of the new student-led National Citizen Party expressed doubts about electoral fairness, saying the BNP is already “dominating all political fields.” Across Dhaka, the streets are covered with posters of Rahman’s face, reflecting both his growing influence and the imbalance feared by rivals.

A nation at a crossroads

Rahman has promised to recover billions allegedly stolen under Hasina and to discipline his own party to prevent future abuses, claiming 7,000 BNP members have already been expelled or punished. Yet uncertainty remains. He has been evasive on whether the Awami League would be allowed back into politics, and critics warn the cycle of retaliation may continue. With 170 million people and a fragile economy, Bangladesh’s February elections could determine whether Rahman’s return ushers in stability—or deepens divisions.