Who really runs Iran now and why succession is suddenly so risky

Who really runs Iran now and why succession is suddenly so risky

The Islamic Republic insists it knows exactly what to do after the death of Ali Khamenei. The constitution is clear. The politics are not.

Within hours of confirming Khamenei’s killing, senior Iranian officials appeared on state television, one by one, to send a simple message: the system is intact. An interim leadership council has taken charge, and the process of choosing a new supreme leader will proceed “normally”.

Nothing about this moment is normal.

A transition taking place under bombs

Under Iran’s constitution, power temporarily shifts to a three-member council when a supreme leader dies. That body includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and cleric Alireza Arafi from the Guardian Council.

On paper, this council oversees the state until a successor is appointed. In reality, all three men are now operating in a country under sustained US and Israeli air strikes, the Financial Times reported. Several senior military leaders have already been killed. Visibility itself has become a risk.

As one analyst put it, Iran needs to project calm and continuity at the exact moment when anyone elevated into leadership becomes a potential target.

How the next supreme leader is chosen

Formally, the task of appointing a new supreme leader falls to the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body. Its members are meant to evaluate candidates and select a senior cleric loyal to the Islamic Republic.

In practice, this has never been a purely clerical decision. The Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s most powerful institution, are expected to exert decisive influence behind closed doors. They control large parts of the economy, dominate the security apparatus and have a direct stake in who ultimately holds power.

The immediate problem is basic logistics. It is unclear how the Assembly can meet safely while strikes continue, or whether a quick decision would expose a new leader before the dust settles.

No clear successor waiting in the wings

For years, Iranian insiders speculated about who might follow Khamenei. That list has largely collapsed.

Ebrahim Raisi, once widely seen as a frontrunner, died in a helicopter crash in 2024. Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, was also considered a strong contender, but his status remains unclear after recent attacks on the supreme leader’s compound.

What remains is uncertainty. Analysts say whoever emerges is unlikely to wield the personal authority Khamenei accumulated over 35 years. Instead, the balance of power may tilt even further toward the Revolutionary Guards.

Stability or a harder turn

Before the war, some believed succession could open the door to structural change, possibly diluting the supreme leader’s dominance or shifting power toward a more collective model. Others warned it could entrench hardliners determined to double down on ideology.

For now, ideology is secondary to survival. The regime’s priority is to avoid the appearance of a vacuum.

Is the system at risk of collapse?

Despite the shock of Khamenei’s death, most observers caution against assuming the Islamic Republic will unravel quickly. It was never a one-man system. Power is spread across clerical bodies, security institutions and economic networks.

But this is the most dangerous succession Iran has ever faced. It is happening in public, under fire, and without an obvious heir.

Whether the regime consolidates or fractures will depend less on constitutional text and more on who controls force, loyalty and timing in the days ahead.