US oil producers set to gain billions as Gulf war drives crude prices higher

US oil producers set to gain billions as Gulf war drives crude prices higher

The war involving Iran has triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, and that jump is turning into a major financial boost for US oil producers.

Since the conflict began on February 28, crude prices have climbed roughly 47 percent. Brent crude moved past USD100 a barrel last week, while West Texas Intermediate, the main US benchmark, settled at USD98.71 a barrel.

If prices remain around these levels for the rest of the year, analysts estimate US oil companies could receive a windfall of more than USD60 billion. Research firm Rystad Energy calculates that if crude averages USD100 a barrel in 2026, American producers could see an additional USD63.4 billion in cash flow.

The impact is already being felt, reports the Financial Times. Investment bank Jefferies estimates US producers could generate about USD5 billion in extra cash flow in March alone as a result of the recent price surge.

US President Donald Trump also highlighted the shift, saying the country’s position as the world’s largest oil producer means it benefits when global crude prices rise.

Why US shale producers are positioned to benefit

The companies most likely to gain from the price surge are US shale producers.

Many of these firms operate almost entirely within the United States and have little direct exposure to the Middle East. That means their production is not being disrupted by the conflict in the Gulf.

Instead, they are selling oil into a market where prices have suddenly jumped.

Producers operating in regions such as the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico continue pumping oil from existing wells, but the price they receive for each barrel is far higher than it was just weeks ago. Because operating costs remain largely unchanged in the short term, much of that increase feeds directly into higher cash flow.

Why global oil majors face greater disruption

For the largest international oil companies, the situation is more complicated.

Companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell and TotalEnergies have extensive operations and investments across the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has therefore disrupted parts of their production and export activity.

Several facilities in which these companies hold stakes have already been affected. Shell has declared force majeure on liquefied natural gas cargoes that were scheduled to ship from QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan export facility after the disruption to shipping routes.

Industry executives say the crisis highlights the risks of operating in such a strategically sensitive region. Martin Houston, chair of Omega Oil and Gas, said the situation benefits few companies despite the rise in prices, adding that international oil groups would prefer stable conditions rather than short-term gains driven by conflict.

Closure of the strait shocks global energy markets

The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has created a severe bottleneck in global energy supply.

Under normal conditions, around 20 million barrels of oil pass through the narrow waterway every day. According to Goldman Sachs, roughly 18 million barrels of that daily flow are currently blocked.

The disruption is even more dramatic for the liquefied natural gas market, where about one-fifth of global supply has been affected.

Analysts expect the conflict to continue for some time. RBC Capital Markets said Brent crude prices could climb above USD128 a barrel within three to four weeks if the war drags into the spring.

At the same time, the crisis is forcing energy markets to rethink long-standing assumptions about supply risks. Some analysts believe the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may mark a shift in how investors and governments assess geopolitical threats to oil supply, particularly in a region that remains central to global energy flows.