Trump says tariffs reduced US trade deficit by 78%, predicts surplus in 2026

Trump says tariffs cut US trade deficit, predicts surplus in 2026

US President Donald Trump has claimed that American trade tariffs have significantly reduced the country’s trade deficit and suggested that the United States could post its first trade surplus in decades by 2026.

In a post on Truth Social, he wrote, “The United States trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries. It will go into positive territory during this year, for the first time in many decades. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

He added that the deficit “WILL GO INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY DURING THIS YEAR,” highlighting his expectation of a turnaround in the nation’s trade balance.

Trump’s remarks came ahead of the official December trade data, due on Thursday (local time). According to Investing.com, the US is projected to post a monthly trade surplus of around $55.5 billion, which, if confirmed, would be the first monthly surplus since 1975.

The US is forecast to record a trade deficit of over $800 billion in 2025, lower than the record $1.2 trillion shortfall reported in 2024. Analysts have attributed much of the deficit reduction to a surge in imports during the first quarter, as businesses accelerated shipments ahead of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs introduced in April.