Trump’s Iran war risks becoming the kind of conflict he once opposed

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• US strikes have damaged Iran's military, but war continues
• Oil prices rise as Strait of Hormuz disruption spreads
• Unclear US strategy and rising costs fuel political uncertainty

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Three weeks into the conflict, the US has carried out thousands of strikes across Iran. By its own account, much of Iran’s military capability has been damaged.

And yet, the war doesn’t look close to ending.

That contrast is becoming harder to ignore. On one hand, President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested the campaign has been highly successful, even saying at one point it was “largely over” within days.

On the other hand, Iran is still very much in the fight. It’s responding, it’s causing disruption, and it’s still shaping how this war is playing out, the Financial Times reported.

The war isn’t ending the way it was expected to

Instead of winding down, things have started to spread in ways that are harder to control.

The Strait of Hormuz is a big part of that. It’s one of the world’s most important oil routes, and right now it’s heavily disrupted. Oil prices have jumped, and markets are clearly on edge. What began as a military campaign is now spilling over into the global economy.

At the same time, Iran’s leadership is still standing. Despite repeated strikes and the loss of senior figures, the system hasn’t collapsed. It’s still functioning, still responding.

And at this stage, just staying in the fight gives Iran some leverage.

The costs are starting to show

The impact is becoming harder to ignore. There have already been US casualties, and more troops are being sent into the region. There’s also growing talk about how far this could go from here.

Then there’s the cost. The Pentagon is expected to ask for around USD200 billion more, on top of an already stretched national budget.

Back in the US, people are feeling it through rising fuel prices. That feeds into everything else, transport, goods, daily expenses and it’s turning into a political issue as well, especially with elections around the corner.

The strategy itself looks unclear

Another problem is that it’s not entirely clear what the endgame is. Different reasons have been given for the war, stopping Iran’s nuclear programme, weakening its influence in the region, but none of these are easy to fully achieve.

Which makes it harder to say what “success” actually looks like.

Even if a lot of Iran’s military capability has been hit, it doesn’t take much for them to keep things unsettled. Disrupt shipping, hit energy infrastructure, launch limited strikes, and the pressure stays on.

A familiar risk is emerging

This is where the concern comes in. The US has seen this before. In Iraq and Afghanistan, early military gains didn’t lead to a quick resolution. Instead, those conflicts dragged on.

There’s a sense that this could start heading in a similar direction. Not necessarily a full ground war yet, but something that keeps expanding without a clear end in sight.

And if ground troops do get involved, that changes everything. It would mean a much deeper and potentially much longer conflict.

Fewer ways out

Right now, none of the options look easy. Pulling back could limit the immediate damage, but it would leave Iran’s leadership in place, possibly more hardened than before. Pushing ahead risks getting pulled further into a situation that’s already hard to control.

Allies add another layer to this. Not everyone is on the same page, and that’s making coordination more complicated.

Where things stand now

So for now, the war is stuck in an awkward place. It’s been intense enough to cause serious damage and disruption, but not enough to bring things to a clear end.

That’s what makes it so uncertain. The conflict is moving forward, but no one really knows how it wraps up from here.

Iran is still in the fight. The economic impact is spreading. And the political and strategic questions around the war are becoming more complex with each passing week.

That is what makes the current moment so uncertain. The conflict is moving forward, but the path to ending it remains unclear.