Trump’s Iran strategy looks familiar. Why it may not work this time

Washington’s strategy targeting Iran’s oil exports and trade routes could push global prices higher and increase geopolitical risks.

• US shifts to economic pressure on Iran amid rising tensions
• Iran uses control of Strait of Hormuz as leverage
• Oil disruptions risk global price hikes and inflation

Did our AI summary help?

As tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, Washington is turning to a strategy that feels very familiar.

Instead of relying only on military force, the focus is shifting towards economic pressure, cutting off oil flows, tightening control over trade routes and trying to force concessions by raising the cost of resistance.

It’s a playbook the US has used before, most notably in its trade battles with China. Push hard, make sweeping demands, and then negotiate from a position of strength.

That approach has worked in some cases. But this time, the situation is far more complicated, CNN reported.

This isn’t a trade dispute playing out across tariffs and negotiations. It’s unfolding in the middle of an active conflict, where every move carries wider consequences, and where economic pressure can quickly spill over into something much bigger.

Why Iran isn’t backing down

Iran doesn’t seem to be reacting the way some other countries have in similar situations.

Instead of giving in quickly, it’s holding on to the one advantage it knows it has and trying to use it strategically. In this case, that advantage is the Strait of Hormuz.

Control over this route means it can influence how much oil moves through global markets. And that’s not a small lever to pull. Even the threat of disruption can push up prices and create pressure in countries far beyond the region.

So rather than responding immediately, Iran appears to be waiting it out, betting that the pressure will start to build elsewhere first.

The economic pressure cuts both ways

On the surface, the blockade is meant to hurt Iran by cutting off its oil income, which is a major part of its economy.

But it’s not that one-sided.

Those same oil supplies also play a role in keeping global prices stable. If that flow is disrupted, prices start moving up. We’re already seeing early signs of that, with markets reacting quickly.

And once fuel prices rise, it doesn’t stop there. Transport costs go up, inflation starts creeping in, and everyday expenses begin to feel heavier.

That’s where it starts to hit people directly.

Why this could backfire

This is where things get tricky.

Economic pressure is supposed to force the other side to give in. But it can just as easily come back the other way. Higher fuel prices and rising inflation can quickly turn into domestic pressure, especially in the middle of a political cycle.

There’s also the risk that things don’t stay limited to economics.

In a region like the Strait of Hormuz, even a small escalation can have wider consequences. The situation doesn’t have to fully spiral for markets to react. Just the possibility is enough to keep things tense.

What happens next

For now, neither side looks ready to pull back.

The US is continuing to push harder, hoping the pressure eventually forces a shift. Iran, on the other hand, seems prepared to absorb that pressure while using its own leverage to push back.

Which means this could turn into a long standoff, where the real question isn’t who strikes harder, but who can hold out longer.

And unlike previous economic showdowns, this one is playing out in a far more volatile setting, where the costs could be much higher and the margin for error much smaller.