Trump’s foreign policy shifts prompt US allies to rethink American weapons dependence

Donald Trump

President Trump’s foreign policy unpredictability is driving US allies to reduce reliance on American weapons systems and accelerate investment in homegrown defence industries.

As President Donald Trump redefines US foreign policy with moves like warming ties with Russia, threatening NATO allies, and pausing support for Ukraine, traditional American partners are reassessing their reliance on US weapons systems. From Canada to Europe, leaders are pushing to steer defence spending toward homegrown industries, spurred by fears that US equipment could become a liability in times of crisis, as reported by The Washington Post.

Doubts grow over US reliability

The recent suspension of intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and Trump’s threats toward Canada and Greenland have underscored the risks of dependency. While the existence of a "kill switch" disabling U.S.-made weapons may be speculative, officials acknowledge that American platforms often require U.S. spare parts, software updates, and data links.

European countries are now reviewing their inventories to evaluate vulnerabilities should Trump cut support in a conflict with Russia, according to senior officials. Canada and Portugal are reconsidering future F-35 orders, and the European Union is excluding US firms from its new defence loan program. Canada is also in talks with the EU to expand local weapons manufacturing.

From procurement to protectionism

European officials admit that US weapons will remain part of their arsenals for now, given the scale and quality of American defence production. However, Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy is accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains and build local capacity. When announcing the next-generation F-47 fighter jet, Trump said export versions would have reduced capabilities: "Because someday maybe they’re not our allies."

The shift follows historical precedents. The US froze military supplies to Iran in 1979 and briefly halted shipments to Egypt in 2013. Turkey was suspended from the F-35 programme after buying Russian defence systems.

Some European leaders now regret prior US purchases. Danish MP Rasmus Jarlov, a defence committee chair, posted that he would not support buying American weapons again, citing fears the U.S. might leverage dependency to extract political concessions.

EU pushes for strategic autonomy

The EU is launching a €150 billion ($163 billion) loan programme for defence projects, favouring products manufactured within the bloc, Norway, or Ukraine. To qualify, 65 percent of the value must originate in these countries. US firms are excluded, and complex systems with restrictions on usage or modification, like Raytheon’s Patriot system, would be ineligible.

"It would be a real problem if whatever equipment acquired by the member states cannot be used for their own defence, because somebody will object," an EU official said.

Foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas emphasized the importance of unrestricted defence capability, pointing to limitations placed on Ukraine’s use of imported weapons. French officials support

the shift, though others like the Netherlands and Sweden remain cautious due to existing US industrial partnerships.

Gradual decoupling, not sudden rupture

European leaders acknowledge that complete independence from US systems is years away. Interoperability within NATO and urgent defence needs mean American equipment remains essential for now. Yet countries are exploring alternative partnerships with Britain, Norway, and Turkey, and investing in European arms manufacturers.

Despite the shift, US arms sales hit record highs in 2024: $118 billion in government sales and $201 billion in commercial deals. But growing doubts are prompting nations to hedge their bets.

"We’re in a very unconventional moment in history," said Keith Webster, a former Pentagon official. "Any nation buying from the United States would begin to think about the possibilities of being denied the ability to sustain a programme."

Still, powerful US defence firms will continue lobbying to maintain their market share. For many allies, diversification is less about cutting ties than about building resilience against Washington’s increasingly transactional approach to global security.