Trump’s 2011 warning about USD300 oil resurfaces after Strait of Hormuz crisis

A narrow waterway between Iran and Oman linking the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. (Image credit: Reuters)

• Trump's 2011 oil price post resurfaces amid Middle East tensions
• Strait of Hormuz disruption raises oil prices above $100/barrel
• Analysts warn prolonged closure could drive prices even higher

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A social media post written by US President Donald Trump more than a decade ago has resurfaced online after the recent escalation in the Middle East disrupted global energy markets.

The post, written in 2011, predicted that oil prices could surge dramatically if Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes for energy.

“Once Iran has nuclear weapons, they will shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Oil will be over USD300 a barrel,” Trump wrote at the time.

The message has circulated widely again in recent days as tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel have pushed oil prices sharply higher.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. It is one of the most important choke points in global energy trade. According to the US Energy Information Administration, about one fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes through the strait every day.

Since the current conflict began, shipping through the passage has been severely disrupted. Analysts estimate that roughly 18 million barrels of oil that normally move through the strait each day are now blocked or delayed.

The supply shock has pushed oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude recently climbed past USD100 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate has been trading close to that level.

Energy analysts say the closure of the strait, even temporarily, can have a dramatic effect on global oil prices because so much supply flows through such a narrow route.

Several large oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates rely on the waterway to ship crude and liquefied natural gas to global markets.

Economists say a prolonged disruption could push prices even higher, depending on how long the crisis continues and whether alternative supply routes can compensate for the lost shipments.

Trump’s decade-old prediction has therefore gained renewed attention online, with many observers noting how central the Strait of Hormuz remains to global energy markets.

For now, oil prices remain far below the USD300 level mentioned in the post. But the renewed focus on the waterway highlights how geopolitical tensions in a single shipping corridor can quickly ripple through the global economy.