Market crash or master plan? Wild theories swirl around Trump’s tariff play

US President Donald Trump - File Photo

As global markets reel from the aftershocks of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements, a provocative question is gaining traction: Is Trump deliberately tanking the markets to gain leverage? If his latest social media post is any indication, the answer may not be far-fetched.

On Saturday, Trump shared a clip on Truth Social that praised his aggressive tariff policies and claimed the former has been playing a “secret game” to make Americans rich.

“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose. … And it could make you rich” the video said. It continued by adding that such a move by Trump would help “push cash into treasuries, which forces the Fed to slash interest rates in May. … It also weakens the dollar and drops mortgage rates. Now it’s a wild chess move, but it’s working,” says the voiceover in the clip.

Global markets nosedive

On Monday, global markets plunged following last week's two-day meltdown on Wall Street, and Trump said he won't back down on his sweeping new tariffs, which have roiled global trade.

In two days, the S&P 500 lost around 6%, evaporating more than $2 trillion in market value. The Dow Jones fell by over 2,200 points. Apple alone lost over $300 billion. And Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned the economic damage from the trade war would be "bigger than anticipated,” predicting slower growth and higher prices.

Indian Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty logged their worst single-day decline in 10 months, as fears that Trump's policies on reciprocal tariffs may lead to recession and higher inflation in the US going ahead unnerved investors. With Monday's sharp fall, the benchmark indices suffered one of their worst declines in five years.

In a horrible day for investors, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 2,226.79 points, or 2.95 per cent, to settle at 73,137.90. During the day, the benchmark index slumped 3,939.68 points, or 5.22 per cent, to 71,425.01. The NSE Nifty tumbled 742.85 points, or 3.24 per cent, to settle at 22,161.60. Intra-day, the benchmark dropped 1,160.8 points, or 5.06 per cent, to 21,743.65.

Countries are scrambling to figure out how to respond to the tariffs, with China and others retaliating quickly.

A 10-percent "baseline" tariff on imports from around the world took effect on Saturday but a slew of countries will be hit by higher duties from Wednesday, with levies of 34 percent for Chinese goods and 20 percent for EU products.

While other countries weigh their options, Beijing announced last week its own 34-percent tariff on US goods, which will come into effect on Thursday.

Trump chastised Beijing early Monday for not heeding "my warning for abusing countries not to retaliate" as he called China "the biggest abuser of them all" on tariffs.

Method behind mayhem?

Several conspiracy theories making rounds on the internet suggest that Trump’s language and timing of tariff announcement suggest a calculated move.

Some analysts believe the chaos could also be aimed at pressuring the Federal Reserve. With markets in flux and consumer demand likely to cool, the Fed may be forced to pause or even reverse interest rate hikes.

Notably, on Friday, Trump called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying it would be a “perfect time” to do so. “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly,” he wrote in a Truth Social post.

Meanwhile, Powell said the central bank will not rush any policy moves: “It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry. We’re going to have to wait and see how this plays out before we start to make adjustments.”

On Monday, the US President again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as he  doubled down on his criticism of China and nations who have imposed tariffs on US imports.

"Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, and the long time abused USA is bringing in Billions of Dollars a week from the abusing countries on Tariffs that are already in place. This is despite the fact that the biggest abuser of them all, China, whose markets are crashing, just raised its Tariffs by 34%, on top of its long term ridiculously high Tariffs (Plus!), not acknowledging my warning for abusing countries not to retaliate. They’ve made enough, for decades, taking advantage of the Good OL’ USA! Our past “leaders” are to blame for allowing this, and so much else, to happen to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" he wrote. 

What happens if Fed slashes rates?

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in response to market turmoil, it would encourage businesses to invest more, stimulate consumer spending, and even lead to a rebound in the stock market.

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it becomes cheaper for businesses to borrow money for investment and expansion; consumers to take out mortgages, auto loans, and credit; and governments to service debt at lower costs. This typically stimulates economic growth, as more money flows into the economy.

Fortune quoted some analysts saying that Trump might be trying to orchestrate a slowdown of the economy to rebuild it with lower interest rates and inflation. This is what some economists call a J-curve, a period of short-term slowdown that leads to a massive take-off.

Video makes brazen claim on Buffett

The clip shared by Trump on Truth Social which praised his “wild chess move” falsely quoted legendary Warren Buffet supporting Trump’s “economic moves”.

Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway issued a public statement on Friday publicly denying that Buffett praised Trump’s recent economic measures.

Warren Buffett calls out Donald Trump for implying that he supports his tariffs. pic.twitter.com/8nYqdommkf Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) April 4, 2025

So, is it on purpose?

If one listens to Trump’s own words and watches the video he shared, the answer seems to be yes—at least partially. He’s not denying the crash. He’s owning it, branding it as part of a grand design to rebuild the American economy on his terms: protectionist, patriotic, and post-globalist.