Soviet Venus probe Kosmos 482 expected to re-enter Earth after 53 years in orbit

Soviet Venus probe Kosmos 482 expected to re-enter Earth after 53 years in orbit

After more than half a century in space, a failed Soviet mission to Venus — Kosmos 482 — is on a collision course with Earth. The 3-foot-wide lander, originally designed to survive the brutal atmosphere of Venus, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere early Saturday, according to tracking estimates from the US Space Force, the Wall Street Journal reported.

A mission gone astray in 1972

Kosmos 482 was launched on March 31, 1972, as part of the Soviet Union’s effort to explore Venus. It was the twin of Venera 8, which successfully landed on Venus. But Kosmos 482 malfunctioned shortly after liftoff, failing to escape Earth’s gravitational pull. Instead, it was trapped in a highly elliptical orbit that has persisted for 53 years.

The spacecraft broke apart shortly after launch. While many of its components — including its booster — have already fallen back to Earth, its rugged lander module, built to withstand Venus’s hostile conditions, remained in orbit.

“This was built to be rugged and withstand Venus’s atmosphere,” said Cathleen Lewis, curator at the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum, who has studied the Soviet space program extensively.

Re-entry imminent, but location uncertain

Pinpointing where Kosmos 482 will land is proving elusive. Current projections by the US Space Force show potential re-entry paths ranging from the Gulf of Oman to northeast Africa and Borneo — a span of thousands of miles. Ground-based radar and satellite tracking systems have followed the object for months, but re-entry physics remain difficult to model precisely due to atmospheric variables.

Dutch astronomer Ralf Vandebergh, who has tracked the lander since 2010, said images from this year show a possibly intact parachute attached to the lander. Originally meant for slowing descent in Venus’s atmosphere, the parachute — if real — might slow its descent to Earth as well, affecting its trajectory and timing.

Risks of falling space debris

The re-entry of Kosmos 482 adds to growing global concern over space junk. More than 54,000 objects larger than 4 inches are currently orbiting Earth, and over 1,200 have re-entered the atmosphere in 2024 alone, according to the European Space Agency. While most debris burns up, some larger pieces do make landfall.

In recent months, space debris from the International Space Station pierced a Florida home, and a large chunk from a SpaceX capsule landed on a trail in North Carolina.

Despite the risks, the US Space Force does not issue predictions on whether objects like Kosmos 482 will burn up or survive re-entry. “We track and monitor but don’t speculate on outcomes,” said spokeswoman Ladonna Davis.

Who owns what falls?

Should parts of Kosmos 482 survive re-entry, Russia technically retains ownership. “Russia has the right to claim anything that they launch,” said Lewis, adding that she’s eager to learn what condition the lander is in after decades in orbit.

If recovered, the spacecraft could offer a rare glimpse into the durability of Cold War-era space engineering — and the unpredictable legacy of space exploration.