Russia set to reclaim top spot in India’s oil imports as Middle East turmoil reshapes flows

Russian oil set to regain top spot in India after February dip (File image)

Iraq became India’s top crude oil supplier in February, surpassing Russia, according to shipping data. However, Russian crude is expected to regain its position as India’s largest oil source in March, with analysts citing easing United States sanctions and fresh supply disruptions in the Middle East, a Reuters report said.

Indian refiners reduced purchases of Russian crude starting December, with February imports dropping 32% year-on-year to about 1 million barrels per day (bpd), nearly half of the peak recorded in June 2025. The decline also coincided with New Delhi securing an interim trade understanding with United States, while increasing dependence on Middle Eastern supplies.

During February, imports from Iraq rose to about 1.18 million bpd, the highest in two years. Shipments from Saudi Arabia also climbed to roughly 998,000 bpd, marking their strongest level since December 2021. As a result, the Middle East’s share in India’s total crude imports increased to nearly 59%, the highest since August 2022.

However, supply dynamics shifted again toward the end of February following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which disrupted flows through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. The disruption prompted a renewed surge in demand for Russian crude.

India’s imports from Russia, though lower in February, have already rebounded to around 1.8 million bpd and are projected to reach between 2 million and 2.2 million bpd in March, according to Sumit Ritolia of Kpler. "Russian barrels remain central to India's crude import strategy," he said.

Policy shifts in Washington, including a temporary waiver on sanctions affecting Russian supplies, further supported the recovery in shipments. At the same time, officials indicated that India has been diversifying sourcing strategies to manage geopolitical risks and supply disruptions.

Apart from traditional suppliers, India also increased purchases from Brazil, which became its fourth-largest supplier after the United Arab Emirates in February.

India’s evolving crude sourcing pattern highlights its effort to balance cost advantages, supply security, and geopolitical pressures while maintaining stable energy inflows as one of the world’s largest oil consumers.