Polymarket odds soar on possible Trump release of UFO files as speculation intensifies

UFO disclosure buzz shakes prediction markets

A stunning surge on the prediction market Polymarket has revamped global interest in what the future of UFO and UAP disclosures might look like in the United States. The market, which asks whether Donald Trump will declassify UFO files in 2025, soared to almost 87 percent probability after a wave of aggressive buying. Platforms tracking the activity reported that the contract moved from low double digits to its peak in a matter of hours, a shift that market participants described as one of the sharpest jumps of the year. The spike happened after significant trading volume pushed up the price, suggesting there is considerable confidence among some traders that classified information may see daylight soon.

Data from Polymarket shows the trading volume of over $160,000 recorded around the time of the spike, indicating strong investor interest. The contract is designed to pay out only if official government documents or videos related to UFO or UAP programmes are formally unclassified before the end of this year. Leaks, comments, or unofficial briefings do not meet the conditions for resolution of the contract. The odds, therefore, reflect speculation by traders and not confirmation from any government authority.

Media reports indicate there is no official word from the White House or any federal agency on a pending declassification order. Yet, the sharp jump in odds has revived long-standing debate about openness regarding UFO studies, some of which has reached the mainstream in recent years. The US government has already declassified various UAP reports through the Pentagon and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence but large segments are believed by many researchers to remain classified.

Analysts warn that movements in prediction markets can be driven by a tiny cadre of traders able to move prices. Polymarket, on more than one occasion, has witnessed sharp and sometimes misleading swings based on speculative trading rather than inside information. Market analysts caution that such platforms record sentiment rather than certainty.

Whether the spike was indicative of actual expectations or mere speculation, the increased activity certainly shows that people are still very interested in UFO disclosures. With the contract at its deadline, all eyes are on whether this surge is one indicating meaningful insight or another case of market-driven excitement.