Pakistan’s Indus basin faces 15% water flow decline, reservoirs at critical levels: Report

Islamabad has blamed New Delhi for the crisis, accusing it of restricting the flow of the western rivers, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, in violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). (File photo)

A sharp decline in water flow from Pakistan’s major dams in the Indus basin has triggered alarm in Islamabad and further strained ties with New Delhi, amid heightening concerns that worsening water scarcity could become a key source of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

According to official Pakistani data cited in a News18 report, water discharge from key reservoirs has plummeted, with a nearly 15 percent drop recorded this week compared to the same period last year.

This follows India’s decision to assert greater control over the flow of the western rivers, effectively suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a move that has escalated water-related tensions between the two neighbours, following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack which claimed the lives of 26 civilians.

On June 5, flow from Punjab’s dams stood at 124,000 cusecs, down from 144,000 cusecs on the same day in 2024, states the report. Reservoir levels across the country are nearing dangerously low levels.

At Tarbela Dam in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Indus River’s water level has receded to 1,465 metres, just above the dead level of 1,402 metres. At Chashma Dam in Punjab, the level is at 644 metres - barely six metres above its dead level. Meanwhile, Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River in Mirpur is at 1,163 metres, with its dead level set at 1,050 metres.

It should be noted that when water plummets below these thresholds, gravity-fed outflows become impossible, significantly impairing access and agricultural irrigation.

The situation, states the News18 report, is especially dire at Marala in Sialkot, where the Chenab River’s flow has plummeted by nearly 90 percent within a week, from 26,645 cusecs on May 28 to just 3,064 cusecs on June 5.

According to a senior Pakistani government official cited in the report, the implications will likely be devastating for the late Kharif cropping season, which runs from June to September.

Further worsening matters, the Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast an intense heatwave beginning June 8. Temperatures are expected to soar 5°C to 7°C above normal across Punjab, Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan, increasing water demand and further stressing already-depleted supplies.

Islamabad has blamed New Delhi for the crisis, accusing it of restricting the flow of the western rivers, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, in violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

In recent weeks, Pakistan has sent four formal diplomatic letters to India, calling for the resumption of treaty protocols and urging New Delhi to halt what it describes as unilateral restrictions on water flows.

India, however, remains firm, maintaining that the IWT is effectively in abeyance due to national security considerations and reiterating its position that “water and blood cannot flow together.”

Speaking at a rally in Gujarat on May 27, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had defended India’s recent actions. He claimed that the country had long underutilised its rightful share of water due to decades of neglect in infrastructure maintenance. “We have not done much yet. We just opened the dam a little and started cleaning it. They are terrified,” PM Modi had remarked.

PM Modi also highlighted chronic failures in dam operations over the past 60 years, claiming that silt and mismanagement had reduced water outflow to just 2 percent or 3 percent of full capacity. “The gates were not opened for 60 years,” he stated, suggesting that recent interventions are necessary and justified.

Signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty allocates the eastern rivers, Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej, to India, while assigning the western rivers to Pakistan.

India is allowed limited non-consumptive use of the western rivers, including for hydropower generation, irrigation, and storage, within defined parameters. The treaty also includes stipulations regarding dam construction, water flow regulation, and dispute resolution mechanisms.