Pahalgam aftermath: Pakistan stares at ten-fold rise in medicine prices, severe drugs shortage as India halts exports

Pakistan will immediately see a steep rise in medicine costs

In light of a serious rise in the prices of essential medicines in Pakistan, a trade body has urged the country's government to regulate prices of drugs. The country is staring at a stratospheric hike in the prices of medicines in the backdrop of India suspending all trade ties with it following a terrorist attack by Pak-backed terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba's offshoot The Resistance Front (TRF) in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam which lead to death of 26 people.

Even prior to the absolute shut down of trade between the neighbouring countries, Pakistan's ARY News had reported that prices of medicines had risen by approximately 14.15 percent in Pak and health facilities had become more expensive by 15.22 percent.

And the trade shutdown would hit Pakistan's citizens harder as Indian supplies constitute over 60 percent of Pakistan's pharma raw materials, advanced therapeutic items and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs). As per ARY News, Pak relies on India for 60 percent of APIs and finished medicines, which includes critical drugs like anti-rabies serums, MMR vaccines, Onco-BCG cancer treatments, monoclonal antibodies and anti-snake-venom. The report adds that replacing Indian APIs will be tough for the beleaguered country as these cost a fraction of the cost of Western suppliers and replacing Indian drugs will take months of testing and registering new sources before it can be greenlit for use.

TV9 quoted Dr Ajay Sahai, Director General & CEO of Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), as saying that the prices of the medicines currently being exported to Pakistan will increase by up to ten times due to the trade shutdown with India. As a result, Pak will immediately see a steep rise in medicine costs. He opined that if Pak imports Indian medicines from third-party ports — like Dubai or Sri Lanka — then there is a possibility that the cost of medicines will rise by up to four times. However, if Pakistan replaces Indian medicines with the European ones, then the hike could be as steep as ten times than the current price.

Data from Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) quoted by Business Standard shows that in April-January 2024-25, India exported $129.55 million worth of organic chemicals and $110.06 million worth of pharmaceutical products to Pakistan indirectly via ports such as Dubai, Singapore, and Colombo, in absence of direct bilateral trade between the two countries.

Pakistan's Dawn had reported that the country's former deputy director of the Drug Regulatory Authority of Pakistan (Drap) had urged Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to regulate prices of medicines in the country as "the prices of medicines were deregulated against public and national interest". Bringing to light the sorry state of affairs in the country, Drap's Dr Muhammad Aleem Akhter said that the skyrocketing price of medicines was making healthcare unaffordable for many people in the country and leading to "increasing anger against the government and the state".

The complete shutdown of trade between the two countries comes in the wake of the deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam that claimed the lives of 26 people. In the aftermath of the terrorist attack, India put the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, shut the Attari-Wagah border, and expelled Pakistani military attaches.