‘No democracy left in Bangladesh’: Why Tarique Rahman’s return changes nothing | Exclusive

Bangladesh democracy crisis deepens ahead

The anticipated return of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rahman after 17 years in exile is unlikely to restore democracy in the country, former Indian diplomat Veena Sikri has warned, arguing that Bangladesh is facing a far deeper political and institutional crisis.

Speaking with Moneycontrol, Sikri said Bangladesh today was witnessing the erosion of democratic norms, rising Islamist influence and the marginalisation of large sections of the population — trends that elections alone could not reverse.

“There is no democracy left in Bangladesh at the moment,” Sikri said, pointing to prolonged political exclusion, violence and the weakening of state institutions.

‘A backroom operator, not a mass leader’

Sikri was particularly sceptical about the ability of Tarique Rahman, the son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, to emerge as a credible national leader after nearly two decades abroad.

“He has been in exile for 17 years. He has no grassroots connect,” she said. “He is not a mass leader. He is essentially a backroom operator.”

She also questioned Rahman’s political silence during some of Bangladesh’s most turbulent recent months, including attacks on minorities.

“He has said nothing on the violence against minorities,” Sikri noted, adding that leadership credibility required moral clarity during moments of national crisis.

Alleged links to ISI and Jamaat

Sikri further raised concerns over what she described as Tarique Rahman’s alleged proximity to Islamist forces and Pakistan-backed networks.

“There have always been links between the BNP leadership, Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan’s ISI,” she said, warning that such alignments could shape Bangladesh’s future political trajectory.

She argued that the growing influence of Jamaat-e-Islami within Bangladesh’s power structure posed serious risks to pluralism.

“In Bangladesh, the Jamaat-e-Islami is in charge,” Sikri said. “They have Mohammed Yunus as their spokesperson, as their mouthpiece.”

What a Jamaat-led government could mean

According to Sikri, the consolidation of Islamist influence would not reflect popular will but rather elite manoeuvring backed by external actors.

“People are religious, yes. But nobody wants Sharia law. Nobody wants a caliphate. Nobody wants Jamaat-e-Islami to come to power,” she said.

She warned that if extremist influence and external interference continued unchecked, Bangladesh could increasingly resemble Pakistan’s political and security trajectory.

“This is what Pakistan wants at the state level,” Sikri said. “But are the people of Bangladesh in favour of this? I don’t think so.”

‘Elections without Awami League will not be credible’

Sikri stressed that elections held without the participation of the Awami League — which represents a significant share of the electorate — would lack legitimacy.

“You cannot keep out 35–40% of the population and expect stability,” she said, warning that exclusion would only deepen violence and insecurity.

She added that credible and inclusive elections were essential to preventing further deterioration.

“Elections without the Awami League will not be credible,” Sikri said, cautioning that flawed polls would only prolong instability rather than resolve it.

Implications beyond Bangladesh

Sikri said India had shown “strategic restraint” so far but warned that prolonged instability in Bangladesh was not in New Delhi’s interest.

“It’s not good for India to have an unstable Bangladesh,” she said. “And it’s not good for Bangladesh either.”

She concluded that without inclusive politics and a rejection of extremist influence, leadership changes alone — including Tarique Rahman’s return — would do little to restore democracy or stability in the country.