New York to get first Muslim mayor? Poll shows Mamdani victory in key Nov 4 election

New York City Mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani could become New York’s next mayor without winning a majority, largely due to a split in the anti-left vote between Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, according to a new poll by the Manhattan Institute cited by the New York Post.

The survey of 600 likely voters found Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, leading the race with 43 percent support, followed by Cuomo at 28 percent and Sliwa at 19 percent. The findings suggest that a divided opposition could pave the way for Mamdani’s victory, despite widespread voter scepticism about his progressive policies.

“In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Mamdani’s lead narrows but endures,” the poll stated. In a two-way race, Mamdani would lead Cuomo 44 to 40 percent, while against Sliwa, he would hold a wider 47 to 33 percent advantage.

The poll revealed what it called a “striking dissonance” between Mamdani’s popularity as a candidate and public support for his socialist proposals. For instance, while his campaign to make city buses free has drawn attention, 58 percent of respondents said they feared such a policy would turn buses into “moving homeless shelters.” Only 33 percent supported eliminating fares altogether.

His proposal to phase out the city’s Gifted and Talented program at the kindergarten level was also met with resistance. Just 21 percent of voters backed scaling back the program, compared to 64 percent who want it expanded.

The survey further showed that 60 percent of voters favor stricter enforcement of subway fare payment, rejecting Mamdani’s call to decriminalize fare evasion. Another 60 percent said they support repealing the state’s 2019 bail reform laws, which Mamdani has championed.

“New Yorkers favor harsher penalties for fare evasion, are eager to repeal the state’s 2019 bail reform law, have hesitations about making buses free, and support meritocracy in public education,” the Manhattan Institute said.

Not all of Mamdani’s ideas were unpopular. His plan to raise corporate taxes to fund social programs found support among 53 percent of respondents.

Despite his apparent lead, the poll underlined that Mamdani has yet to break 50 percent of voter support, meaning he could become mayor without a clear mandate. The last New York City mayor to win without a majority was John Lindsay in 1969.

“Anything less than 50 percent of the vote takes away Mamdani’s claim to a mandate and means he represents a minority of voters,” a progressive Democratic operative told the New York Post. “The majority don’t agree with him on issues like weakening the NYPD’s authority or eliminating mayoral control.”

Many moderate Democrats and Republicans have urged Sliwa to drop out to consolidate support behind Cuomo. But Sliwa has dismissed those calls. Political strategist Ken Frydman said it might not matter even if he did. “Were Curtis to drop out with a week to go but remain on the ballot, I don’t see Cuomo picking up enough Curtis voters who would prefer Andrew to Zohran,” he said.

Cuomo, running as an independent, has also sought to differentiate himself from Mamdani, calling him “a socialist who happens to be on the Democratic line.”