Modi heads to Maldives: Will it blunt Beijing’s influence? India eyes reclaiming space in its strategic backyard

Prime Minister Narendra Modi - File Photo

As tensions ease and diplomacy returns to the forefront, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit the Maldives on July 25-26. This will be his first engagement with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu since the “India Out” campaign and military withdrawal demands strained bilateral ties.

The visit, timed with the Maldives’ 60th Independence Day, is more than symbolic. It marks New Delhi’s strategic recalibration to restore influence in its maritime backyard, counter China’s growing footprint, and reassure a neighbor grappling with economic instability and shifting alliances. From infrastructure pledges to defence cooperation and currency support, the visit could redefine the arc of India-Maldives ties.

India-brief agenda

During his visit to the Maldives on July 26, Prime Minister Modi will be the Chief Guest at the country’s Independence Day celebrations, including the national parade and flag-hoisting, signalling strong diplomatic ties.

The agenda is expected to focus on boosting economic and infrastructure cooperation, including a review of the India-funded Greater Maafushi Connectivity Project. Talks may also cover digital payment integration like UPI, tourism promotion, and support for projects in water, sanitation, and housing. Security discussions will likely centre on maritime cooperation, joint naval drills, and defence training under the Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership.

Financial assistance will also be on the table, with a review of India’s $400 million currency swap and $100 million treasury-bill rollover, and possibly new pledges for tourism, development, and climate resilience.

Broader implications

PM Modi’s visit signals India’s effort to reassert its leadership in the Indian Ocean amid rising global competition. It highlights a model of engaging smaller neighbours through financial support, capacity building, and respectful diplomacy. Strengthening ties with the Maldives, which is strategically located near key maritime routes, also helps reinforce regional stability and India’s role as a trusted partner.

PM Modi last visited the Maldives in 2019, soon after starting his second term. During that trip, he addressed the newly elected People’s Majlis and witnessed the signing of key MoUs in areas like hydrography, healthcare, and sea-based passenger and cargo services. He also promised Indian assistance in restoring Male’s historic Hukuru Miskiiy (Friday Mosque).

India has long played the role of the Maldives’ first responder, be it during the 2004 tsunami or the COVID-19 crisis, and continues to be the largest provider of defence training for the Maldivian National Defence Force, having trained over 1,500 MNDF personnel in the past ten years.