Khyber Pakhtunkhwa airstrike: How Pak Army's missteps and failed negotiations fuelled TTP's resurgence

File Photo - Pakistani paramilitary soldiers stand guard at Torkham border crossing, in Khyber district, Pakistan.

At least 30 civilians, including women and children, were killed in the early hours of Sunday after Pakistan Air Force jets reportedly carried out air strikes on Matre Dara village in the Tirah Valley of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Eyewitnesses described the assault as a massacre, flattening entire homes and leaving dozens trapped under rubble. Intelligence sources said China-supplied JF-17 Thunder jets dropped eight LS-6 precision glide bombs across the civilian settlement, with no verified militant presence.

The operation has renewed criticism of Pakistan’s military, exposing a pattern of targeting civilian populations under the pretext of counter-terror operations. Analysts warn that such attacks deepen Pashtun resentment and risk fuelling further anti-state militancy.

TTP’s resurgence and retaliatory campaign

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistani Taliban, ended an indefinite ceasefire in November 2022, declaring that its fighters should carry out attacks across the country. The group, ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban, back then stated, “As military operations are ongoing against mujahideen in different areas, … so it is imperative for you to carry out attacks wherever you can in the entire country.”

The TTP accused Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies of sabotaging negotiations, claiming that repeated warnings were ignored. Its resurgence reflects growing frustration with Islamabad’s heavy-handed counter-terror operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the former tribal regions.

Since the ceasefire ended, the TTP has conducted multiple attacks against Pakistan Army and police personnel. On November 16, 2022, it claimed responsibility for an assault on a police patrol in Lakki Marwat, killing six officers. Security expert Asfandyar Mir of the United States Institute of Peace noted that the TTP had previously exercised restraint by limiting attacks to tribal areas but warned that their latest declaration signalled the start of countrywide operations. Analysts argue that the TTP’s strategy is retaliatory, aimed at punishing the military for civilian casualties caused during counter-terror operations.

Similarly, in September 2023, multiple TTP attacks killed over ten security personnel across Orakzai and South Waziristan.

Prior to the Matre Dara air strike, the TTP reportedly intensified attacks on army positions in Tirah Valley, targeting checkpoints and logistical routes. These operations were described by analysts as defensive retaliation, timed to coincide with ongoing military pressure in the region.

Pakistan Army’s operations and civilian casualties

The Pakistan Army has repeatedly launched air and ground operations against TTP strongholds in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas. While Islamabad frames these operations as counter-terror measures, reports indicate a consistent pattern of civilian targeting.

The Matre Dara air strike is the latest example. Intelligence sources argue that the use of precision glide bombs by JF-17 jets “proves intent, not collateral damage.” Survivors described the village as “littered with bodies” by dawn, highlighting the disproportionate impact on non-combatants.

The Army, however, has denied responsibility, attributing the deaths to a terrorist munitions accident. Official statements claimed that “12–14 Khawarij” were killed alongside “8–10 civilians who were used as human shields.” Intelligence sources dismissed this version, pointing to aerial deployment of Chinese-supplied weapons. Critics contend that Islamabad frequently uses counter-terrorism as a cover for internal repression, particularly against Pashtun populations, framing civilian massacres as anti-militant operations.

TTP’s strategic motivations and Afghan Taliban influence

The TTP’s attacks since 2022 have been driven by multiple factors. The group demands the imposition of hardline Islamic law, the release of key members arrested by Pakistan, and a reversal of the merger of tribal areas into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While the TTP’s resurgence is a response to Pakistan’s military pressure, analysts suggest that Afghan Taliban influence has shaped the group’s restraint and escalation patterns. Asfandyar Mir noted, “I have inferred the targeting as a function of Afghan Taliban pressure on the TTP to calibrate their escalation. Now if the TTP follows through in its declaration of countrywide attacks, the key question is how will the Taliban respond.”

Despite ongoing negotiations mediated by the Afghan Taliban, Islamabad’s relentless operations have prevented lasting peace. According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, at least 65 TTP attacks occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by October 2022, killing 98 people and injuring 75. Many of these attacks targeted Pakistan Army and police personnel directly, signalling the TTP’s continued operational capacity and its ability to retaliate effectively against military offensives.

The Tirah Valley massacre and the TTP’s ongoing insurgency highlight Pakistan’s failure to balance counter-terror operations with civilian protection. By conducting indiscriminate strikes on populated villages, the Army risks deepening ethnic and tribal resentments, ultimately fuelling the very militancy it claims to fight. Meanwhile, the TTP continues to exploit these operations for strategic retaliation, demonstrating that Islamabad’s approach has not weakened the insurgency but has instead entrenched it. Observers warn that without accountability for civilian massacres and a reassessment of military tactics, Pakistan faces escalating internal instability and intensifying anti-state violence.