Israel strikes Iran’s Natanz facility in bold bid to halt nuclear progress

Israel strikes Iran’s Natanz facility in bold bid to halt nuclear progress (File image)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Thursday that Israel had struck Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment facility — the most ambitious attack ever mounted by Israel against Iran’s nuclear program — in a move designed to cripple what he called “the beating heart” of the country’s nuclear capabilities, the New York Times reported.

Natanz has long been the central site of Iran’s uranium enrichment, producing most of the country’s nuclear fuel and, in recent years, much of the near-weapons-grade material that Western experts say could quickly be converted into nuclear bombs. Netanyahu warned that Iran now had enough fuel for nine nuclear weapons and could “weaponize” that material within a year, echoing recent assessments by international inspectors.

Extent of damage still unclear

The scale of the damage remains uncertain. The Natanz centrifuge halls are buried roughly 50 yards underground and heavily reinforced. If Israel destroyed Iran’s centrifuges, it could set the program back by years. But if the core equipment survived, Iran could rebuild relatively quickly, as it has done following previous acts of sabotage.

History offers mixed lessons. The famed Stuxnet cyberattack co-developed by the U.S. and Israel 15 years ago disrupted Iran’s centrifuges but only delayed the program by a year or two. Sabotage and assassinations of key scientists also provided temporary setbacks, but Iran’s nuclear efforts ultimately rebounded, especially after President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear accord.

Risk of unintended consequences

Israel’s attack on Natanz carries significant risks. A short-term delay of Iran’s program could come at the cost of Iran exiting the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, driving its efforts further underground and accelerating its push for a nuclear weapon — the very outcome Netanyahu sought to prevent.

Experts note that if Iran’s Fordow enrichment site was not targeted, the attack may leave the country’s core capability intact. Fordow, buried deep beneath a mountain and heavily protected, is beyond the reach of most conventional bunker-busting bombs. It houses Iran’s most advanced centrifuges and would allow Tehran to continue enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.

“If you don’t get Fordow,” said Brett McGurk, a former U.S. Middle East coordinator, “you haven’t eliminated their ability to produce weapons-grade material.”

Targeting leadership as well

Israel also extended its strikes beyond the facilities, reportedly targeting nuclear and military leadership headquarters and residential areas — a shift from its previous strategy of individually assassinating key scientists. The aim appeared to be to disrupt leadership en masse.

Diplomatic fallout likely

The timing of the strike, amid heightened tensions and diplomatic efforts, will likely fuel debate over Israel’s strategy and whether alternatives — such as the now-abandoned U.S.-Iran nuclear accord — might have better contained Iran’s ambitions.

For now, key questions remain unanswered: Was the heart of Natanz truly destroyed? Was Fordow targeted? And will the strike ultimately delay or accelerate Iran’s nuclear quest? The coming weeks may offer clarity, but past experience suggests that military attacks alone rarely resolve such complex challenges.