Israel gears up to strike Iran if Tehran's nuclear talks with US collapse: War on the horizon?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a press conference in Jerusalem on May 21, 2025.

Israel is reportedly preparing for a swift and sustained military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities if ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations collapse, Axios reported. This development marks a significant escalation in regional tensions, as Israeli officials express growing skepticism about the success of diplomatic efforts.

"Bibi (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s nickname) is waiting for the nuclear talks to collapse and for the moment Trump will be disappointed about the negotiations and open to giving him the go-ahead," Axios quoted an Israeli source as saying.

Israeli intelligence assessments have recently shifted from anticipating a nuclear agreement to believing that talks may soon break down.

The report quoted an Israeli source indicating that the military believes its operational window for a successful strike could soon close, necessitating swift action if negotiations fail.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly awaiting a moment when the Trump administration becomes disillusioned with the negotiations, potentially providing tacit approval for military action. However, US officials are concerned that Israel might proceed without explicit consent, potentially undermining diplomatic efforts.

Israel's approach aligns with the "Begin Doctrine," a policy asserting that Israel will not allow hostile nations to acquire weapons of mass destruction. This doctrine has previously guided Israeli actions, such as the 1981 strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor and the 2007 attack on Syria's Al-Kibar facility.

In October 2024, Israel conducted "Operation Days of Repentance," targeting Iranian missile infrastructure and air defenses. The operation involved over 100 aircraft and aimed to degrade Iran's military capabilities, setting a precedent for potential future strikes.

Iranian officials have dismissed reports of an imminent Israeli strike as "psychological warfare," suggesting that such narratives are intended to pressure Tehran during negotiations. Despite this, Iran lacks a clear contingency plan should talks fail, with officials indicating a potential pivot towards strengthening ties with China and Russia.