Iran’s regime under pressure, but still firmly in control

Emergency personnel work at the site of a strike on a residential building in Iran's Tehran. (Reuters)

• Iran's regime endures despite US and Israeli airstrikes.
• IRGC's power grows with regime centralization
• Iran uses Strait of Hormuz to pressure global oil markets

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After more than two weeks of intense airstrikes by the US and Israel, the assumption in many places was that Iran’s leadership might start to crack. That is not what intelligence agencies are seeing so far.

Instead, the picture that is emerging is more complicated. The regime looks battered, but still standing. And in some ways, it may be becoming more rigid and more hard-line than before, the Washington Post reported.

Why the regime is still holding

There is no doubt the damage has been significant. Iran’s missile capability and parts of its navy have been hit hard. Several senior military and intelligence figures have been killed. But none of this has translated into visible political collapse.

Officials tracking the situation say there are no clear signs of internal splits or defections at the top. The system, despite the pressure, is holding together.

In fact, some earlier intelligence assessments had already suggested that even heavy military action would not easily dislodge Iran’s leadership structure.

The IRGC is becoming even more central

If anything has changed, it is who holds more power inside Iran right now. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, was already a powerful force, with influence across the military, intelligence and large parts of the economy. That influence now appears to be growing.

With parts of the leadership disrupted, the system seems to be leaning more heavily on the IRGC to maintain control. Analysts often describe the IRGC as the backbone of the regime. In moments like this, that role becomes even more visible.

Why the system is hardening, not softening

One of the more striking aspects of the conflict is how it is shaping the mood inside Iran.

Instead of weakening the system politically, the war appears to be pushing it in the opposite direction. Supporters of the regime have become more vocal, and the overall tone has shifted toward resistance.

At the same time, those who had argued for diplomacy or engagement seem to have lost ground. This is not unusual in prolonged conflicts. External pressure can sometimes strengthen hard-line positions rather than soften them.

The Strait of Hormuz is now central

Another key factor is Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes.

Shipping through the strait has slowed sharply, and you can already see the impact on energy markets. Prices are reacting, supply chains are tightening, and nerves are starting to show.

Iran seems to be using this as a pressure point. The message is fairly clear — it still has the ability to disrupt global oil flows if the war drags on.

That’s also making US allies in the Gulf uncomfortable. They’ve already been hit by retaliatory strikes, but at the same time, they’re wary of pushing things further and getting pulled deeper into the conflict.

A war that isn’t staying contained 

This is also not turning out to be the quick campaign many expected. Costs for the US have already run into billions, and there have been American casualties. What initially looked like a short, sharp operation now feels far more open-ended.

Iran, on its side, seems to be playing for time — stretching the conflict, raising the

cost, and trying to shift the pressure back.

What to watch next

For now, one thing is clear. The regime in Iran is still standing, but things inside it are starting to shift. Power is concentrating further in the hands of the IRGC. The system is becoming more

controlled and less open to internal debate.

That does not mean things will stay this way. Economic stress and public sentiment could still change the picture over time.

But at this stage, the war has not weakened the system in the way many expected. If

anything, it has made it more tightly held together.