In 36 hours, Trump went from rejecting ceasefire to peace talks to threatening Iran again

From winding down signals to troop surge and oil sanctions relief, conflicting moves raise questions over US strategy as markets turn volatile

• Trump shifts from rejecting ceasefire to hinting at peace talks
• US warns Iran, sends more troops and warships
• Temporary lifting of oil sanctions adds confusion to US strategy

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US President Donald Trump has sent sharply conflicting signals on the Iran war over the past 36 hours, shifting from rejecting a ceasefire to hinting at peace talks, even as he issued a fresh 48-hour threat of military escalation.

The rapid-fire reversals have added to uncertainty around Washington’s strategy in a conflict that is now in its fourth week and increasingly roiling global markets.

From ‘no ceasefire’ to ‘peace talks,’ and a new ultimatum

The messaging shift has been unusually stark.

On Friday afternoon, Trump said he did not want a ceasefire with Iran. Within hours, he suggested the US was 'considering winding down' military operations.

By Saturday, Axios report indicated the administration was planning possible peace talks.

Then came the sharpest turn: a warning that the US would 'obliterate' Iranian power plants within 48 hours if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The sequence, de-escalation signals followed by an explicit escalation threat, has left allies and analysts struggling to interpret the administration’s next move.

Actions on ground tell a different story

Even as Trump spoke of winding down the war, the US moved to deepen its military presence.

Washington announced the deployment of additional warships and around 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, taking the number of personnel supporting the war effort to roughly 50,000.

At the same time, the Pentagon is reportedly seeking an additional USD 200 billion from Congress to fund operations, a scale that points to sustained engagement rather than an imminent pullback.

Trump has ruled out a full ground invasion but has indicated that limited deployments, including special forces, remain on the table.

Economic signals add to the confusion

The policy contradictions are not limited to military messaging.

In a parallel move aimed at cooling energy prices, the US has temporarily lifted sanctions on certain Iranian oil shipments already at sea, potentially releasing around 140 million barrels into global markets.

The step offers some relief to supply pressures but also provides a financial opening to Iran, even as Washington ramps up military threats.

The mixed approach has drawn criticism, including from within Republican ranks, over the absence of a consistent strategy.

Hormuz disruption keeps markets on edge

At the centre of the crisis remains the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route handling about one-fifth of global supply.

Iran’s attacks on shipping lanes have disrupted flows, pushing Brent crude above USD 110 per barrel and triggering volatility across equity markets. US stocks fell sharply in the latest session, while fuel prices climbed.

Because oil is globally traded, disruptions in supplies headed to Asia are feeding into price pressures worldwide.

No clear endgame, rising uncertainty

The combination of shifting rhetoric, military build-up and selective economic easing has reinforced a broader concern — that there is no clearly defined US endgame in the conflict.

For markets, that uncertainty is becoming the dominant risk.

Investors are now watching two parallel tracks: whether the 48-hour ultimatum leads to direct escalation, and whether backchannel efforts toward talks gain traction.