Illegal crossings by Indians into US plunge to 4-year low: What led to the sharp decline | Explained

62% drop in Indians detained at US borders, lowest in 4 years

The United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) detained 34,146 Indian nationals for attempting to enter the country illegally between October last year and September this year, marking a 62% decline from 90,415 detentions in the previous fiscal, according to CBP data.

The data shows a sharp decline in such cases over the past four years, marking the steepest drop during this period. Indian nationals now account for a much smaller share of total border detentions compared with previous years.

In September 2025, the final month of the fiscal year, 1,147 Indians were intercepted, down from 63,927 in FY22, a fall of nearly 47%. Overall, US border officials recorded 2.9 million migrant encounters in FY2024, slightly below 3.2 million in 2023 but higher than 2.7 million in 2022.

Among those apprehended this year, 31,480 were single adults, forming the largest group. Authorities also recorded 2,552 family units, 91 unaccompanied children, and 23 minors travelling with adults. Officials described the presence of minors at the border as “an ongoing humanitarian concern.”

Migration agents operating from north and central Gujarat, long associated with so-called “dunki routes”, appear to have scaled back their activities after fatal incidents involving Indian families.

A family from Dingucha village perished while crossing the US–Canada border in 2022, followed by another death near the Rio Grande in 2023, prompting increased caution among would-be migrants.

A senior immigration official said to The Times of India, “The American route is still viewed as a life-changing gamble. The decline in numbers does not mean the desire has ended, only that the risks have become clearer and costlier.”

Experts attribute the decline to a mix of stricter US border enforcement, greater awareness of the dangers among Indian families, and changes in smuggling tactics. Despite the fall in detentions, factors such as employment stagnation, aspirations for higher education, and the lure of dollar remittances continue to draw interest from states like Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana, albeit with increased caution.

What are the reasons for the decline? 

• The Trump administration’s renewed crackdown on illegal immigration led to tighter border patrols, expanded surveillance, and more deportations. The use of military aircraft to repatriate migrants sent a strong deterrent signal.
• In 2024, the US imposed visa restrictions on Indian agents accused of running illegal migration networks, disrupting smuggling routes and reducing their operations.
• Authorities have increased scrutiny of unaccompanied minors and families at the border. Harsher detention measures and faster deportations have discouraged many from making the risky journey.
• Deadly incidents, including the 2022 Dingucha family tragedy at the US-Canada border and another near the Rio Grande in 2023, deeply affected migrant-sending regions like Gujarat and Punjab, making families more wary of “dunki routes.”