How the war in Ukraine could end: Two possible scenarios

The absence of a deal highlighted the Kremlin’s determination to continue fighting until its broader geopolitical demands are met

The Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin underscored the intractability of the war in Ukraine. Despite Trump’s push for a cease-fire, Putin insisted on addressing what he called the “root causes” of the conflict—Ukraine’s Westward shift and NATO expansion. The absence of a deal highlighted the Kremlin’s determination to continue fighting until its broader geopolitical demands are met, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Scenario one: Partition with protection

One possible outcome is Ukraine surviving as a smaller but secure state. This would mean freezing the current front lines, with Russia holding about 20% of Ukrainian territory. Kyiv and its allies would refuse to recognize Moscow’s annexations legally, but accept them as de facto realities. Western nations could then bolster the remaining Ukrainian state with strong defences and security guarantees, echoing the post-Korean War settlement that left South Korea under U.S. protection.

Ukraine’s guarded acceptance

President Volodymyr Zelensky has signalled openness to negotiating over territory after a cease-fire, though Kyiv’s constitution forbids ceding land formally. European leaders admit privately that Ukraine is unlikely to regain all lost ground, but want to limit Russia’s gains as much as possible. In this scenario, Ukraine’s sovereignty would be preserved, its military reinforced, and Western troops might even be deployed as deterrents. For Putin, however, such an outcome would amount to a failure.

Scenario two: Partition with subordination

The darker alternative is Ukraine losing not only land but sovereignty. Russia’s longstanding demands include curbing Ukraine’s armed forces, limiting its Western ties, and reshaping its political system. If Ukraine were forced into this position, the remaining state would effectively become a Russian protectorate, with Moscow exerting influence over its leadership and policies. This scenario would mark a capitulation for a country seeking integration with Europe and democracy at home.

The battlefield factor

So far, Ukraine’s resilience has prevented outright defeat, but exhaustion is mounting after more than three years of war. Russian forces, with larger manpower and resources, continue to grind forward, aiming to wear down Ukraine’s army rather than achieve sweeping conquests. Military experts warn that if Kyiv fails to address its shortages in troops and equipment, it could eventually become too weak to resist Russia’s political demands, even if its lines hold.

What could tip the balance

For Putin, economic and political risks at home may eventually outweigh his fixation on Ukraine, but analysts see little evidence of that yet. For Ukraine, continued Western support—both militarily and economically—remains crucial to avoid collapse. Trump has floated ideas of tightening sanctions on Russia’s oil revenues, but such measures would take time to bite. Ultimately, the war’s end may hinge less on summits and more on which side proves more sustainable.