Hamas at crossroads: Weakened militarily and with little choice but to accept Trump’s Gaza plan

Hamas faces critical peace decision

Weakened militarily and facing declining support, particularly among Gaza residents, Hamas is now a shadow of the militant group it once was, according to The Conversation. The situation has been further complicated by President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

On October 3, 2025, Hamas announced that it accepted some aspects of the proposal, including handing over administration of Gaza to a body of independent Palestinian technocrats and releasing all remaining Israeli hostages. These hostages are the last of 252 taken during the October 7, 2023 attack – an event that, two years on, represents the height of Hamas’ power.

“As an expert on Palestinian political attitudes, I believe the group now has few options to survive,” the article notes. Hamas could transform into a purely political party, renouncing arms, but would first need to confront other elements of Trump’s plan, its unpopularity at home, and its rigid ideology.

Campaign of assassination

Over two years of Israeli military operations, Hamas has lost most of its senior command in the Al-Qassam Brigades. Izz al-Din al-Haddad now leads what remains of the group’s military wing, having presumably taken over from Mohammed Sinwar, brother of Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the October 7 attack and was killed in May 2025.

Trump suggested on Truth Social on October 3 that Hamas had lost 25,000 fighters. Estimates vary, but this could represent over half of its original force. While new recruits have joined, they often lack experience and are primarily motivated by anger toward Israel. Hamas’ political leadership has also been decimated, with figures including Ismail Haniyeh, Saleh al-Arouri, and Yahya Sinwar killed.

An Israeli operation targeting Hamas’ political leadership in Doha, Qatar, in September 2025 failed, narrowly avoiding further losses.

Falling support in Gaza

Palestinian public pressure on Hamas has intensified amid severe wartime conditions. More than 67,000 people have been killed and over 169,000 injured, with much of Gaza reduced to rubble. Over 90 per cent of residents have been displaced multiple times, and famine has been reported in some areas.

Hamas’ influence has eroded in areas under Israeli control. Clashes with other Palestinian factions, coupled with executions and torture of suspected collaborators, have fueled chaos and resentment. A May 2025 poll indicated that half of Gazans supported anti-Hamas demonstrations. Support in both Gaza and the West Bank has steadily declined.

The push for peace

Exhaustion among Palestinians has increased calls for Hamas to accept Trump’s plan. The group has agreed to release the remaining hostages and transfer Gaza administration to a technocratic committee. Endorsing the plan fully could end the war, facilitate a gradual Israeli withdrawal, and avoid expulsion of Palestinians.

However, Hamas would need to disarm and allow regional and international forces to dismantle military infrastructure, including tunnels, weapons, and rockets. The fate of remaining fighters remains a key sticking point. Failure to comply could be exploited by Israel’s extreme-right factions, who favour fully occupying Gaza and reestablishing settlements.

Where next for Hamas?

Transforming into a political party may be Hamas’ most viable option. The group would need to reform its structures and ideology, aligning with growing momentum for a two-state solution. Recent international recognition of Palestinian statehood adds pressure. Trump’s plan vaguely acknowledges the Palestinian “aspiration” for a state.

Past examples, such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation post-Beirut in 1982, show that militant groups can pivot to politics. Regional actors like Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt could facilitate moderation.

Hamas’ rigid ideology remains a barrier, tied to hard-line Islamist principles rejecting recognition of Israel or the establishment of a secular Palestinian state. Yet examples like Syria’s post-Assad Islamist groups show that transformation is possible and can gain international acceptance.

Whether Hamas can successfully transition to a political entity—and whether other militant factions will accept it—remains uncertain. The group’s future hinges on navigating both internal challenges and external pressures in a rapidly changing regional landscape.