From limited strikes to regional war: How Trump miscalculated Iran's response as Tehran retaliated harder than expected

Children play around an unexploded missile that landed in an open field on the outskirts of Qamishli, eastern Syria, on March 5, 2026. (Photo by Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP)

The US and Israel launched a limited campaign against Iran, expecting manageable retaliation. Instead, Iran responded aggressively, disrupting global energy markets and exposing gaps in US strategy, forcing Washington to reassess its assumptions and costs.

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The United States and Israel launched a sweeping military campaign against Iran believing the confrontation would remain limited and manageable. Instead, the conflict quickly spiralled into a broader regional crisis that disrupted global energy markets and forced Washington to reassess its assumptions about Tehran’s response.

A report by The New York Times said the episode revealed how President Donald Trump and his advisers miscalculated the scale and intensity of Iran’s retaliation and the wider economic consequences of the war.

Here is a closer look at how the misjudgment unfolded.

Expectation of a short and limited conflict

According to the report, US officials initially believed that Iran’s response would resemble earlier episodes of tension in the region, when retaliation was limited and quickly contained.

The administration expected that any disruption to global oil markets would be brief. Officials assumed prices might rise temporarily and then fall again, as had happened during earlier clashes in the region.

However, this assumption proved wrong once the conflict began.

Iran’s aggressive military response

Instead of a restrained reaction, Iran launched a far more aggressive campaign.

Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting US military installations across the Persian Gulf and striking Israeli targets as well.

The scale of the retaliation surprised officials in Washington. Even Pentagon leaders acknowledged the reaction had been stronger than anticipated.

At a Pentagon briefing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth admitted that the exact nature of Iran’s response had not been fully expected, saying the military “did not necessarily anticipate” the way Tehran would retaliate.

For Iranian leaders, the conflict was seen not as a limited confrontation but as an existential threat to the regime, which drove a far more forceful reaction.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis

One of the most serious consequences of the escalation was Iran’s ability to disrupt global energy flows.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage through which roughly one fifth of the world’s oil supply moves, effectively became impassable as the conflict intensified.

Commercial shipping slowed dramatically and global oil prices surged, triggering concerns about a wider economic crisis.

The disruption also led to rising gasoline prices in the United States, increasing domestic pressure on the administration to stabilise the situation.

A strategy gap inside Washington

The escalation exposed what critics described as a lack of clear planning for the consequences of a prolonged conflict.

After a closed-door briefing for lawmakers, Senator Christopher Murphy said the administration had no clear strategy for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the disruption to global shipping.

According to the senator, officials “did not know how to get it safely back open.”

Inside the administration, the situation reportedly triggered growing pessimism among some officials who believed the war lacked a clear endgame.

However, many were reluctant to openly challenge the president’s public statements that the military campaign was succeeding.

Mounting economic and military costs

As the war expanded, the financial and military costs began to rise quickly.

Pentagon officials disclosed in briefings to lawmakers that the United States used about $5.6 billion worth of munitions in the first two days of fighting alone, a far higher burn rate than previously disclosed.

The rapid consumption of weapons, combined with the disruption of global energy markets, added urgency to efforts within the administration to find ways to stabilise the conflict.

Meanwhile, Iranian strikes continued against US bases and regional allies, further complicating the strategic picture.

A war that escalated faster than expected

The unfolding crisis illustrates how quickly limited military plans can spiral into broader conflicts.

According to the New York Times analysis, the episode is “emblematic” of how Trump and his advisers misjudged Iran’s likely response to a war that Tehran viewed as a fight for survival.

The conflict has therefore become not only a military confrontation but also a test of how well Washington can manage the economic, political and strategic consequences of its decisions.

With global energy markets under pressure and regional tensions rising, the war’s trajectory remains uncertain.