European powers draft plan to take over more NATO defence duties amid Trump uncertainty

Some European governments are hesitant to engage in burden-shifting discussions for fear of accelerating US disengagement. Others question whether the Trump administration would support a structured process or even adhere to any agreement.

Europe’s leading military powers are developing plans to assume greater responsibility for the continent's defence from the United States, aiming to present a structured proposal to the Trump administration to avoid a sudden American withdrawal from NATO, according to the Financial Times.

The UK, France, Germany, and Nordic countries are involved in the discussions, which seek to create a roadmap for gradually shifting financial and military burdens from Washington to European capitals over a five- to ten-year period. Officials said the objective is to assure President Donald Trump that a managed transition is underway, potentially encouraging him to support continued, albeit reduced, U.S. involvement.

Preparing for reduced U.S. involvement

The initiative comes in response to Trump's repeated threats to weaken or exit NATO and reflects fears of a chaotic or unilateral US pullback. The proposed plan would include binding commitments from European countries to increase defence spending and enhance their military capabilities.

Although the U.S. remains central to NATO's operations, providing advanced military capabilities, 80,000 troops stationed in Europe, and the nuclear deterrent shared with European allies, officials say it would take up to a decade of sustained investment for Europe to compensate for most US military competencies—excluding nuclear forces.

"Increasing spending is the only play that we have: burden sharing and shifting the dial away from US reliance," said one European official involved in the talks.

Internal division and scepticism

Some European governments are hesitant to engage in burden-shifting discussions for fear of accelerating US disengagement. Others question whether the Trump administration would support a structured process or even adhere to any agreement.

"You need a deal with the Americans and it’s unclear if they will be willing to do it," said another official. "Can you even trust them to hold to it?"

Nevertheless, countries like France and the UK are leading discussions on forming a "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine and strengthen European defence. These talks involve more than a dozen European defence powers but do not include the US.

A senior Western official noted this shift: "We’re seeing it right now: the UK and France taking the initiative [on a reassurance force for Ukraine] without the Americans."

NATO still seen as essential framework

Despite concerns over the US role, European officials favour retaining NATO as the primary structure for continental defence, even if American involvement wanes. NATO's existing command structures, defence planning, and Article 5 mutual defence clause make it more viable than building a new European-only alliance from scratch.

"Even without the United States, NATO provides a structure for security co-operation in Europe," said Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow at Chatham House. She emphasized that NATO's familiar infrastructure and planning systems make it an indispensable platform, even in a reduced US scenario.

The discussions come ahead of NATO's annual summit in The Hague in June, where European leaders hope to present their proposal and shape the future of transatlantic defence cooperation.