Democrats misread Biden’s decline — and the cost of silence may be Trump’s return

Democrats misread Biden’s decline — and the cost of silence may be Trump’s return

In 2022, when initial warnings were sounded concerning then US President Biden's age and waning vigour, most Democrats dismissed them publicly — and doubted them privately as well. Even as there were obvious signs of stumbling, party leaders and liberal pundits united behind the benefits of incumbency, betting on Biden's vision of legislative victories and discounting the growing unease of the people. That faith, or maybe denial, now appears to be one of the most significant political misreads in recent memory, the New York Times said.

This week, Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson's explosive book, Original Sin, brought into public view again the controversy over Biden's mental state and the party's slow-motion crisis response to a crisis in plain sight. Even as many voters felt it unfolding before their eyes, Washington insiders forced silence — a culture of groupthink and risk aversion that might ironically set the stage for Donald Trump's return to power.

The true cover-up was self-deception

While other critics perceive the Biden drama as a premeditated lie, the better indictment might be collective self-deception. According to Tapper and Thompson, allies and aides close to Biden — even those not part of his close-knit inner circle — explained away his public struggles as being within his control. Few challenged his capacity to lead, and many chose not to notice what polls already indicated: that voters believed Biden was too old to have another term.

Even when rumours of Biden's decline emerged after the catastrophic June debate, veteran Democrats held back. One ex-White House staffer confessed they'd insulated Biden from even his own aides to conceal how bad things had gotten. Yet for months, lawmakers and party officials kept up the pretence that he was "up to the job."

Biden's inner circle dictated the terms

Biden's long-time advisors — referred to in Original Sin as the "Politburo" of Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, and Bruce Reed — were said to have exercised tight controls over access to the president. This insulation produced the appearance of stability, particularly for Democrats who were close enough to track policy but far enough not to see Biden regularly in person.

This vacuum of information defined how many of the insiders got it wrong about the crisis. They took legislative achievements and a fairly disciplined administration as evidence that Biden was good to go. But as the book illustrates, his staff had merely gotten proficient at working around his limitations.

It wasn't Biden's failure alone — it was the party's

Now that Biden's condition can no longer be denied, some Democrats are eager to blame the president, his family, and his staff. But the greater failure is institutional. A party that boasts about its commitment to truth and science disregarded its own electorate and polls. Even when the public sent unmistakable signals — that they needed a fresh nominee, that Biden's age was an issue — party leadership clung to conventional wisdom.

Tapper and Thompson uncover that influential players such as Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi were willing to entertain a democratic process of selecting a substitute following the June debate. But complacency won out. As House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar eventually confessed, the majority of House Democrats wanted Biden to resign — but held their tongues for "respect."

Time expired — and so did courage to act

There was still an opening, even subsequent to the debate, to create a bold new trajectory. A mini-primary, a process of consultation, even a unified appeal to Biden — all would have involved rapid, strategic imagination. What happened was that the party stalled. A month hung in suspended animation, crippled by loyalty, intimidation, and an overestimation of the moment.

That inability to move quickly now risks making the election about it. Democrats wasted years standing up for Biden's mental acuity, earning themselves credibility losses with the public in the bargain. To win back credibility — and Trump — it begins with admitting they made mistakes.

They didn't merely stand up for Biden too long. They refused to hear their own constituents. And now, the cost might be a second Trump term.