Bangladesh head Yunus’ bonhomie with Pakistan and China: What it means for India

Bangladesh's interim government chief adviser Muhammad Yunus

Bangladesh appears to be recalibrating its foreign policy with key regional players including China and Pakistan – steps that India will have to watch closely. Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus recently embarked on a four-day visit to China, where he met President Xi Jinping and signed nine agreements, securing $2.1 billion in financial commitments from Beijing.

He described China as an “important” friend and expressed optimism about strengthening bilateral ties.

Simultaneously, Bangladesh is re-engaging with Pakistan. On April 22, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will visit Dhaka, marking the first such high-level diplomatic exchange in over a decade. The last visit by a Pakistani foreign minister took place in 2012. These diplomatic overtures highlight a shifting geopolitical landscape in South Asia.

Yunus’ China visit

During his visit to China, Yunus urged Beijing to expand its economic influence to Bangladesh, controversially mentioning that India’s northeastern states being landlocked could prove to be an opportunity.

“The seven states of India, the eastern part of India, are called the seven sisters. They are a landlocked region of India. They have no way to reach out to the ocean,” he said. Calling Bangladesh as the “only guardian of the ocean” in the region, he said this could be a huge opportunity and could be an extension of the Chinese economy.

Yunus also expressed Bangladesh’s openness to Chinese participation in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. Previously, both this project and the modernisation of Mongla Port were associated with India during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure. He also urged China to lower interest rates on loans to Bangladesh from 3 per cent to 1-2 per cent and requested a waiver of commitment fees on Chinese-funded projects.

Reviewing ties with Pakistan

Since Sheikh Hasina’s departure from power in August 2024, Bangladesh-Pakistan relations have improved significantly. Visa regulations have been loosened, trade has flourished, direct flights are back, and talks of military cooperation are reportedly underway.

What India needs to watch?

With China and Pakistan expanding their influence, India needs to recalibrate its diplomatic approach to ensure continued strong and constructive relations with Bangladesh.

Relationship with Dhaka has been on a downward trajectory since the fall of Sheikh Hasina government last year. This was because India remained closely aligned with Hasina, even as her popularity dwindled.

India’s refusal to act on Bangladesh’s formal extradition request for Hasina, who faces charges related to alleged killings, continues to strain bilateral relations.

In an opinion piece in The Indian Express, Syed Munir Khasru, senior director of the international think tank IPAG India, writes, “Some longstanding issues have festered for years, like the unresolved Teesta water treaty. As a result, Bangladesh’s northern region has been facing severe dry-season water shortages, loss of agricultural productivity, and vulnerability to floods.”

He further adds, “India cannot afford to press pause on relations with Bangladesh until an election result it finds favourable materialises. The relationship is far too critical. Current tensions require strategic patience and sustained diplomatic effort as stakes are indeed high for both nations.”

On Dhaka’s growing collaboration with Pakistan, Veena Sikri, who was India's high commissioner to Bangladesh between 2003 and 2006, tells BBC, it is “a major security concern for India”.

"It's not just the military relationship. The Pakistani establishment is also reviving ties with Bangladeshi Islamist parties like the Jamaat-e-Islami, which supported Islamabad during Bangladesh's independence war," she adds.