With US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fast approaching, Washington appears to be preparing for a major escalation.
Trump has warned that the US would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran does not fully reopen the critical waterway within 48 hours. The deadline is set to expire Monday evening US time.
Behind the scenes, discussions in Washington are now shifting towards more aggressive options, including a possible move to seize or blockade Iran’s most critical oil export hub.
The Kharg Island plan under consideration
According to Axios, the Trump administration is actively considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island, which processes around 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports.
The idea is straightforward. By taking control of or cutting off access to Kharg Island, the US hopes to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring global shipping flows.
A source familiar with White House thinking told Axios, “We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations.”
Another senior official said the President is focused on reopening Hormuz at any cost. “He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that's going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that's going to happen. But that decision hasn't been made.”
At the same time, officials have stressed that no final call has been taken. “We've always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump… the president is going to do what's right,” another official said.
What such an operation would require
A seizure of Kharg Island would not be a limited strike. It would likely involve a sustained military campaign.
US officials have indicated that Iran’s military capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz would first need to be significantly degraded through airstrikes. Only then could ground forces move in.
The scale of preparation is already visible. A 2,500-strong Marine expeditionary force is expected to arrive in the region within days. Two additional Marine units of similar size are also being deployed. Naval assets are also being repositioned, including amphibious assault groups and carrier-linked forces.
Recent US airstrikes on Kharg Island were described by officials as a “shot across the bow,” aimed at both signalling intent and weakening Iranian defences ahead of any potential ground operation.
Trump himself said, “We can take out the island anytime we want… We've taken out everything but the pipes. We left the pipes because to rebuild the pipes would take years for them.”
However, risks remain significant. Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery told Axios that such a move could expose US troops unnecessarily. “If we seize Kharg Island, they're going to turn off the spigot on the other end. It's not like we control their oil production.”
Alternative strategy: Control without occupation
Not all experts support a ground invasion. Some suggest that after further strikes, the US could deploy naval forces to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring safe passage without seizing territory.
This approach could reduce risk to US troops while still countering Iran’s disruption of shipping.
The Iran factor: Threat to mine the Gulf
Any US move on Kharg Island would come against the backdrop of a major Iranian warning.
Tehran has threatened to mine the Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked. Iranian officials have said that “all access routes in the Gulf” could be mined, including with floating mines deployed from shore.
They warned that in such a scenario, the entire Gulf could resemble the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period, effectively halting maritime movement.
What the consequences could be
If the US proceeds with a Kharg Island operation and Iran follows through on its threat, the fallout could be severe.
Mining of Gulf waters would disrupt oil exports not just from Iran, but from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq. Around 20 percent of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping costs would surge, insurance premiums would spike, and global energy markets could face a major shock.
At the same time, a US ground operation would mark a deeper military commitment, increasing the risk of direct confrontation and prolonged conflict.
The bigger picture
Trump’s original aim was to end the war quickly. Instead, the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has forced a strategic rethink.
With the deadline approaching, the choice before Washington is stark. Escalate with a high-risk operation targeting Kharg Island or find a way to secure shipping routes without widening the conflict.
Either way, the next move could define not just the trajectory of the war, but the stability of global energy markets.
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