25% tariff slapped, Trump warns of more over Russia ties: How much India relies on Moscow for oil and defence

File Photo - Russian President Vladimir Putin decorates Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle the First-Called during a ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 9, 2024. (Photo by Alexander NEMENOV / AFP)

Donald Trump has confirmed that a 25 per cent tariff will be imposed on Indian exports to the United States, with an additional “penalty” still under discussion -- all linked to India’s continued energy and defence ties with Russia. The announcement came through a series of sharply worded posts on Truth Social over Wednesday and Thursday, leaving New Delhi scrambling to assess the potential fallout.

Trump, who has increasingly taken aim at India's foreign policy choices, accused the country of long-standing protectionism and deepening economic ties with Moscow. “Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!” he wrote.

Doubling down, he followed with a blunt statement: “I don’t care what India does with Russia… they can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.”

He also criticised India’s role in the BRICS bloc, describing it as “basically a group of countries that are anti The United States,” and warned that BRICS posed a threat to the U.S. dollar. “It’s an attack on the dollar, and we’re not going to let anybody attack the dollar,” Trump said, adding that the tariff decision stemmed partly from this “deficit” and “trade situation.”

In response, India on Wednesday said it is studying the implications of the move and will take all steps to "secure our national interest". Stressing that the Centre places the "utmost importance on protecting and promoting the welfare of" farmers, entrepreneurs, and MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises), the Ministry of Commerce and Industry also made a reference to the recently concluded free trade agreement with the United Kingdom.

India’s Russia ties: Energy and defence at the core

India’s reliance on Russian oil has increased dramatically since 2022, after Western sanctions on Moscow made heavily discounted crude available. New Delhi – the world's third-largest crude importer after China and the US – began snapping up Russian oil that was available at a discount after some in the West shunned it as a means to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

This month, Russia supplied 36 per cent of all crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel, that India imported.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has firmly defended the policy. In 2024, he said, “India is a big oil consumer… We are a big oil importer because we don’t have oil. Now, it is not like there is a political strategy to buy oil… There is an oil strategy to buy oil… There is a market strategy.” He also criticised the West’s double standards, pointing out in 2022 that the EU had bought more fossil fuel from Russia than the next ten countries combined: “The oil import in the European Union is like six times what India has imported.”

On defence, India’s reliance on Russia remains significant. Over the past two decades, 65% of India’s military imports — worth over $60 billion — came from Moscow, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). While the share has dropped to 36% in recent years due to growing defence cooperation with the US and Europe, Russian-origin platforms remain the backbone of India’s armed forces.

Recent deployments such as the S-400 missile systems during Operation Sindoor against Pakistan further highlight the continuing relevance of Russian defence systems.

Bilateral trade booms despite Western pressure

Bilateral trade between India and Russia has expanded rapidly, from $10.1 billion pre-pandemic to $68.7 billion in FY 2024–25. Russia's discounted oil, coal, and fertiliser exports dominate the trade flow, while India has found a larger export market in Russia amid Moscow’s Western isolation.

Infrastructure projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor and the Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor are also progressing, aimed at reducing dependency on traditional shipping routes and shortening delivery timelines.

India’s official position on the Ukraine conflict remains nuanced. It supports “constructive, solution-oriented, and practical engagement” and has pledged to back any “feasible and mutually acceptable solution” that could restore peace, while continuing to pursue its strategic interests.

New Delhi now faces the challenge of managing a shifting US relationship while standing firm on its sovereign economic and strategic choices.