Nifty crash

Since 2009, Nifty has had a positive close in July on 75 percent of the occasions, making it the month with the best chance of ending with gains, if only looks at the data for last 16 years.

Sensex and Nifty 50 slipped over one percent each from the day's high, as tensions in the Middle East bubbled up again.

The Nifty 50 index is reshuffled twice every year, based on six-month data ending January 31 and July 31, and the changes to the index are made in March and September.

Despite the threat of a spiralling of conflict in the middle east this month, the India Vix has still not crossed the highs seen on June 13, the day when Israel began military action on Iran's defence and nuclear infrastructure.

The gauge is 4.6% away from its peak set in September and the central bank’s jumbo rate cut Friday is further raising expectations of a record-breaking surge.

Nifty 50 is likely to continue its ongoing consolidation phase, remaining within that key 24,000 to 25,000 range until fresh triggers emerge.

Sonthalia cautioned that while the recent surge in defense stocks, partly fueled by emergency procurement under 'Operation Sindoor', has created momentum, valuations remain frothy. 'The narrative is strong, but fundamentals need to catch up,' he said.

Kotak Institutional Equities said large-caps are likely to stay range-bound over the next few months, given the lofty valuations across the markets, low consumption and global tensions.

The market's valuations have stayed at high levels across stocks and sectors, despite earnings downgrades, said Kotak Institutional Equities.

While upbeat on India’s structural growth prospects, BofA Securities maintains a cautious near-term stance due to global macro risks and a fully priced-in Nifty 50 at 25,000.

After trimming their holdings towards mid- and small-cap stocks in the March quarter, retail investors saw a sharp rise in the share of Nifty 50 stocks in their portfolio.

India Inc.’s March-quarter earnings drew mixed reactions, with Motilal Oswal citing broad-based beats and Emkay Global calling the performance largely in-line. W

Nifty 50 for the month of May is already higher by 1.75 percent, after a 6.3 percent rally in March and a 3.5 percent upmove in April. This will also mark a third positive monthly close for Indian equity indices after five months of decline.

PL Capital noted that while the correction was broad-based and valuation-led, the rebound has been rotational and grounded in earnings.

The GIFT Nifty index was trading on a lacklustre note on Thursday, May 15, implying a weak start for the benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex.

Divergence between index and median returns signals growing profit concentration and shifting market dynamics

Indian equity benchmarks are poised to set new 2025 lows, even if tensions with Pakistan ease, according to technical strategist Sushil Kedia.

After a strong seven-day rally, the Nifty and Sensex pulled back on April 24, weighed down by weak earnings from FMCG majors.

Banking stocks stole the show in early trade, with the Bank Nifty index topping the 55,100 level for the first time ever, lead by gains in Axis Bank and IDFC First Bank.

Unwinding of short positions by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), coupled with aggressive long bets by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) led to a sharp rise in the indices, said one derivatives expert.