Ban Ki Baat: Will India or Trump define the next chapter in the TikTok saga

TikTok has 170 million users in the United States, a country crucial for its future revenue growth prospects

Will TikTok ‘go dark’ in the United States after January 19, or will it receive a last-minute reprieve from President-elect Donald Trump? That's the question on everyone's mind, with no clear answer at the moment.

All signs, however, currently point to an imminent shutdown of the ByteDance-owned short video app in the country, where it has over 170 million users and is expected to play a critical role in its future revenue growth prospects.

If the shutdown occurs, it could evoke a sense of déjà vu for TikTok, which faced a similar suspension in India in 2020 — then its largest market, with over 200 million users. The scenario may also serve as a lesson for creators on rebuilding their audiences after losing them overnight.

On January 17, the US Supreme Court upheld a law that requires ByteDance to sell TikTok's US operations or shut it down by January 19 on national security grounds. The law was passed with a bipartisan majority in the US Congress last year and was signed by President Joe Biden.

To be sure, the law doesn't require TikTok to be shut down in the country. It only prohibits platforms such as Apple and Google mobile app stores and cloud providers such as Oracle from distributing, maintaining, or updating the app, and face penalties of $5,000 for every user who is able to access the app.

People who already have the app on their smartphones should be able to continue accessing the service. That said, TikTok's lawyer told the Supreme Court last week that the app would “go dark” if it lost the case.

In a statement on January 17, TikTok reiterated this stance, stating that it will be "forced to go dark" on January 19 unless the Biden administration "provides the necessary clarity and assurance to service providers that are integral to maintaining TikTok's availability to over 170 million Americans."

The India story

While the US action against TikTok has been in the works for several years, India's move was more swift, banning TikTok and ByteDance's other apps such as Helo and CapCut overnight on June 29, 2020, citing national security concerns. This was part of the government's first wave of 59 Chinese apps banned in the country.

Following this order, the apps were taken down by Apple and Google from their app stores the next day, and TikTok went offline later that day. The ban was made permanent by the government in January 2021.

Read: TikTok parent ByteDance to shut down music streaming service Resso in India on January 31

Although the suspension caused massive disruption for creators who had built sizeable audiences on the platform, it also led to the mushrooming of several short video apps that sought to capitalise on the unprecedented demand for bite-sized content and fill the void left by TikTok.

This included global companies such as Meta's Instagram, Google's YouTube, and domestic firms such as ShareChat (Moj), Times Internet (MX Takatak), and VerSe Innovation's Josh.

Several domestic startups such as Mitron and Chingari also raised funding to chase this opportunity, but eventually shut down or pivoted after struggling to scale and monetise their offerings.

ShareChat  acquired rival MX Takatak for $600 million in February 2022. The company recently rebranded it as MojLive, a live video and chat application.

However, the biggest gainers from the TikTok fallout were Meta and YouTube, with Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts currently dominating the country's short video market.

In fact, Instagram's growth in India provided a big boost to Meta's efforts to compete with TikTok globally. With over 640 million installs, Instagram was the most downloaded app in the world in 2024, according to industry estimates.

"A pivotal factor contributing to Instagram's popularity in India has been TikTok's ban in the country in 2020. Instagram Reels has effectively filled the void... offering users a comparable platform for creating and sharing short-form videos," app intelligence firm Sensor Tower said in a report released last year.

Who will benefit from the ban?

When it comes to the United States, though, the stakes are higher as the country comprises a significant share of the revenues of social media giants.

Meta would gain the most from a TikTok ban, with Instagram and Facebook attracting 22.4 and 17.1 percent of TikTok's reallocated ad spend, respectively, according to an analysis by market research firm eMarketer.

YouTube would take around 10.7 percent of the spend while other social media platforms such as Snapchat, Linkedin, Pinterest, Reddit, and X (formerly Twitter) would collectively attract 18.3 percent, it said. Many of these platforms have adopted short-form videos to tap into the rising consumption of bite-sized content.

By analysing trends observed in India after TikTok’s ban, Sensor Tower also projects that Meta will likely capture the "bulk of TikTok’s US app engagement hours, ad spend, and in-app purchase (IAP) revenue.''

Instagram (32 percent) and Facebook (10 percent) are expected to account for a combined 42 percent of the US digital ad spend by Q4 2025, while YouTube (29 percent), Snapchat (23 percent), X (5 percent), and Pinterest (1 percent) are projected to share the remaining market, it said.

Among other players, Xiaohongshu, a Chinese TikTok rival that is also known as RedNote, has topped the download charts on Apple’s app store.

What will Trump do?

Trump, who had previously pushed for a ban-or-sale of TikTok during his first term in 2020, is now opposing efforts to ban the app.

Trump has pledged to "save" the short video app and in December, he asked the Supreme Court to delay the  ban so  he could negotiate a "political resolution” after taking office on January 20.

Read: Joe Biden or Donald Trump can still rescue TikTok; here's how

In a post on Truth Social on January 17, Trump said the Supreme Court decision “was expected and everyone must respect it.”

"My decision on TikTok will be made in the not too distant future, but I must have time to review the situation. Stay tuned!" he said.

Trump is said to be considering issuing an executive order that will allow TikTok to remain operational for 60-90 days while finding a resolution to this matter, according to The Washington Post. He could also instruct the US Justice Department to not enforce the ban, it said.

Earlier in the day, Trump said that he spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping about TikTok, among other things. "It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, starting immediately," he added.

Read more: China discusses sale of TikTok US to Musk as one possible option

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew also met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago last month and is expected to attend his inauguration on January 20, along with other tech CEOs.

In a video message on January 17, Chew thanked Trump for "his commitment to work with us to find a solution that keeps TikTok available in the United States."

"We are grateful and pleased to have the support of a President who truly understands our platform — one who has used TikTok to express his own thoughts and perspectives, connecting with the world and generating more than 60 billion views of his content in the process," he said.