Will they, won’t they? The debate on supplying fighter jets to Ukraine continues

His hand on his heart, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy watched as his country’s flag was hoisted on September 14 above the recently recaptured city of Izium, a rare foray outside the capital that highlighted Moscow’s embarrassing retreat in the face of a lightning Ukrainian counteroffensive. (Source: AP)

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky received a rapturous and hero’s welcome during his two-day visit to the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) as he made a plea for more funds and weapons to deal with Russia’s stepped-up offensive, widely believed to begin in the coming weeks.

But he failed to get a commitment from either London or Brussels on the fighter jets that he so desperately wants to face the challenge from Moscow.

His visit that ended on Thursday has brought back the debate on supplying fighter jets to the centre-stage.

There is wide agreement among the western countries that Ukraine needed to be armed with more sophisticated and effective weapons to defend itself better against Russia’s stepped-up offensive expected to begin soon.

Zelensky received a hero’s welcome and was met at the airport by the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. He also got to meet the British Monarch King Charles III.

The ostensible reason for his surprised visit to London — the only second one outside the country since the war began in February last year, was to thank UK for its support during the war.

But during his interaction with the British leadership and during his address to the Parliament in London it became clear that his main intention was to ask for fighter aircrafts from the UK.

“We have freedom; give us wings to defend it,” he asked the British parliamentarians.

Zelensky received a rapturous welcome in the European parliament too, where he engaged with the EU leadership and thanked them for the support they have extended to Ukraine.

He tried to convince the EU leadership that Ukraine was winning the war even as the country was being pounded by Russian forces in their new offensive, while trying to convince it for urgent supply of sophisticated weapons.

“A Ukraine that is winning is going to be a member of the EU,” Zelensky said confidently.

But though most countries in the western alliance are in favour of intensifying their support to Ukraine, they are hesitant to supply it with fighter jets.

The British government has so far resisted calls to send fighter jets to Ukraine.

However, Sunak announced that Britain would train Ukrainian pilots to fly NATO-standard jets, and indicated that he was open to eventually sending planes.

The UK is not the only western country to resist sending fighter jets to Ukraine, the United States and Germany are also opposed to the idea.

The German Chancellor who recently broke his reluctance amid rising pressure to supply Ukraine with sophisticated German battles tanks, Leopard 2, said, supplying fighter aircrafts to Ukraine is a “step too far for the west”.

Last year, the Pentagon bluntly shot down a Polish plan to provide MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.

The demand for fighter jets — either the F-16 or the MiG-29 — that Ukraine has been demanding, has split opinion in the west.

The west’s reluctance in supplying sophisticated fighter aircraft to Ukraine is based on two main reasons. One, to avoid getting NATO more involved in the war. Though, it has been incrementally increasing its involvement in the conflict by supplying more and more sophisticated weapons, it has tried to limit them to strengthen Kyiv’s defence.

The other reason stems from its fear of Russia’s wide air defences.

Russia’s dense and highly lethal network of ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems are extremely effective, and could therefore, be able to match the fighter jets of the western countries.

To avoid detection, the F-16s will have to fly at a much lower height, and this increases the chance of them becoming easy targets for the Russian air defences ending in heavy losses.

Ukraine had a small air force of about 120 combat-capable aircraft of Soviet-standard jets at the start of the war. But that number has drastically reduced as the war has gone on. Ukraine now retains a limited capability and the number of aircraft has to be replenished.

Ukraine’s preference is for the F-16 Fighting Falcon, a lightweight fighter aircraft that was used by the US air force in both Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

It was originally built in the 1970s by the US in a consortium with Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway.

The aircraft can travel at twice the speed of sound. It has remained one of the most popular military aircraft and is widely used.

According to US manufacturer Lockheed Martin there are more than 3,000 F-16s in service in 25 countries.

However, a curious feature of the Ukraine war that has surprised military experts in the west is its relatively limited use of air power.

Experts said that Russia has mainly relied on its anti-aircraft defences and has been very reluctant to risk its own air force beyond the front-line, as it too wants to minimise losses.

But Ukraine will have to get US’ consent before it can expect to get F-16 aircraft from any country.

The US has control over the jet’s re-export and no nation will want to ignore Washington’s reluctance, given concerns about any possible Russian retaliation.

Zelensky has asked for 200 aircraft, a number that even a generous west is likely to refuse.

Moreover, learning to fly the F-16s will need experienced pilots who will have to be taken out of the war, and it may take five to six months to train them.

But it remains to be seen how the US-led west will react if Ukraine continues to lose the war under Russia’s heavy Spring offensive.

Will it then lead the west to change its current stand and get more involved in the war by supplying Ukraine with F-16s, is a question that will be widely mulled over by experts in various capitals in Europe and beyond in the coming days.