US election 2024: What factors can favour Donald Trump to become president again

America stands at a crucial juncture, facing a divide on key issues

Ahead of the US presidential election, Republican contender Donald Trump and Democrat candidate Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the race.

Recent surveys suggest it might be a slow process to sort out whether Trump or Harris will sit in the Oval Office in January. Over 160 million voters are expected to cast their ballots.

What do polls say?

The New York Times and Siena College final poll showed Harris showing new strength in North Carolina and Georgia as Trump erased her lead in Pennsylvania and maintained his advantage in Arizona. She still has a lead in three key states.

What is Trump’s stand on key issues?

Inflation: Trump has promised to “end inflation and make America affordable again”.

Taxes: Trump proposes tax cuts worth trillions, including an extension of his 2017 cuts which mostly helped the wealthy.

Abortion: Trump has struggled to find a consistent message on abortion.

Immigration: Trump has vowed to seal the border by completing the construction of a wall and increasing enforcement.

Foreign policy: Trump has an isolationist foreign policy and wants the US to disentangle itself from conflicts elsewhere in the world.

Which factors are likely to favour Trump?

Immigration: Trump has always been vocal about "Make in America" policies, firmly opposing illegal immigration. His 2016 campaign heavily leaned on the narrative that foreigners were taking jobs from Americans. Trump has maintained his stance into the current election and has accused Joe Biden of failing to manage the southern border crisis. Trump has dubbed Harris the “border czar".

Anti-Incumbency against Biden: Joe Biden's final year in office has been overshadowed by two major wars. Trump has termed US aid to Ukraine as illegal in his rallies, promising to halt it. Many voters reportedly feel Trump can bring resolution to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and bring down inflation.

Musk’s support: Tesla CEO Elon Musk has not only invested over $119 million into Trump’s campaign group, America PAC. Musk has also devoted considerable energy to campaigning in high stake Pennsylvania, where he went to college.

Influential allies: MAGA supporters have called Harris a weak candidate. In contrast, Trump's team is portrayed as strong and capable, suggesting that voting for him means supporting influential figures like Elon Musk, JD Vance, Robert Kennedy Jr., and Vivek Ramaswamy. This message paints Trump's potential cabinet as a group of powerful and assertive leaders.

“If Trump is defeated, he will not accept the result and will do everything he can to try to prevent that count on, I think it's January 5th this year, where they're certifying the presidential electoral votes,” Paul A Beck, Professor Emeritus and Academy Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University, told Reuters.