Russia-Ukraine war: Possibility of ceasefire remote, report says

The report speaks about the failure of the United Nations Security Council to end the conflict in Ukraine and West Asia. (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

Over 2 lakh people have lost their lives across the globe in 2024, reveals International Institute of Strategic Studies' The Armed Conflict Survey 2024. An established London-based think-tank, IISS highlights the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle-East crisis that involves Israel, Iran, the Hezbollah of Lebanon, the Houthis of Yemen and of course, the people who attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, the Hamas in Gaza.

The report mentions the increasingly aggressive role played by non-state actors like the Hamas, Houthis and the Hezbollah, and like them, there were about 450 other armed groups that were causing concern. "The wars in Sudan and Gaza have been marked by violations in international humanitarian law by all sides," it said.

There has been a "blatant disregard for civilian lives" leading to the forced displacement of 90 per cent of the people living in Gaza and 7.7 million in Sudan, who are internally displaced. There has been "widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure in urban areas" and the blocking of humanitarian aid, leading to food insecurity.

The report also highlights the failure of the United Nations Security Council to end the conflict in not only Ukraine and West Asia, but also Sudan and other places, primarily because the five permanent members have differing views-- which the IISS refers to as "geopolitical fragmentation". The international system and the Western powers have been unable to work towards conflict resolution or even ensure ceasefires, the report added.

About the possibility of an end to the fighting in Ukraine, the report says that despite the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States and the setbacks the West-supported Ukrainians have had in the battlefield, the possibility of a ceasefire was "remote". There are too many issues-- political, legal, security and economic-- to be resolved. It speaks of difficult problems relating to war crimes, the freezing of Russian assets, reparations and of Ukrainians taken to Russia. Most importantly, neither Russia nor Ukraine appear to be ready for a ceasefire.

Then, adding to the already grim international security situation, there is the problem of narco-deforestation, says IISS. This would be about growing cocaine by cutting down forests and also, the pollution from illegal mining in different parts of the world. Naturally, conflict restricts a nation state's efforts to adapt to climate change and undertake mitigation efforts.