2024 US Presidential bid: How things look for Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Michelle Obama right now

“Global South” does not correspond to the southern hemisphere. And the term "Third World" fell out of use decades ago. (Image by Nothing Ahead via Pexels)

On his way back to Washington DC from the G20 summit in New Delhi, US President Joe Biden stopped over in Vietnam for a day. On September 11, he addressed a 25-minute press conference in Ho Chin Minh City.

The Indian media has highlighted the comment he made there that during his meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he had “raised the important (issues) of respecting human rights and the vital role that civil society and a free press have in building a strong and prosperous country”. But there was much other interesting stuff in the press conference.

As Biden was answering a question about what he discussed in New Delhi with Chinese premier Li Qiang, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, in an unprecedented move, cut him off mid-sentence and announced: “Thank you everybody. This ends the press conference.” The President seemed taken aback for a few seconds and then walked off the stage.

According to the official transcript available on the White House website, the last few lines of Biden’s answer to the Li question was: “We talked about making sure that the Third World—the—excuse me—Third World—the—the—the southern hemisphere had access to change, it had access—we—it wasn’t confrontational at all. He came up to me. He said (inaudible)—” This was when Jean-Pierre broke in.

The term “Third World” has been dead and buried for at least three decades and the term currently in vogue—“Global South”—does not correspond to the southern hemisphere despite what Biden thinks. For instance, countries like India, which is trying to be the “voice of the Global South”, China—though its claim to be part of the grouping is debatable, Mexico and two-thirds of Africa are in the northern hemisphere, and Australia and New Zealand, which are far below the equator, are part of the “Global North”.

Over the last two years, American voters have become increasingly worried about Biden’s age—he will turn 81 in November—and his physical and mental ability to hold the most powerful job in the world. His speech often seems to be halting, his gait slow and in some of his public interactions in recent months, he appears to be confused and not fully there.

He began the Vietnam press conference with these lines: “Good evening, everyone. It is evening, isn’t it?” At one point, he said: “I don’t know about you, but I’m going to go to bed.”

According to recent opinion polls, even a majority of registered Democratic Party voters believe that he should not stand for President next year. In a poll conducted by CNN last month, a stunning 82 percent of Democrats/ Democratic-leaning independents said that they would prefer “just someone besides Joe Biden” as the party’s nominee for US President in 2024. In fact, this percentage has risen from 69 percent when CNN asked the same question in March.

A sure sign that things are bad is the fact that both The New York Times and Washington Post, Biden’s most steadfast cheerleaders in US print media, carried op-eds a day or two after Biden’s Vietnam visit, saying that Biden should not run for President again. While lauding Biden as “a successful and effective president”, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote: “I don’t think Biden and Vice President (Kamala) Harris should run for re-election… (I)f he and Harris campaign together in 2024, I think Biden risks undoing his greatest achievement—which was stopping Trump.”

Trouble is that every opinion poll indicates that not too many Americans agree that Biden has been successful and effective. The CNN poll asked respondents: “How well are things going in the country today?” Seventy percent thought that things were going “pretty badly” or “very badly”.

There is also a spectre other than Biden’s age that hangs over the Democratic Party Presidential nomination. This is Kamala Harris, who, as things stand, remains Biden’s running mate in 2024. If Biden wins and then is forced to resign due to poor health, she will be President.  Harris’ approval ratings have been worse than any Vice-President since opinion polls began, and too many Americans, including Democrats, find the prospect of her becoming President thoroughly unacceptable.

Harris was chosen by Biden as Vice-President not for her competence or popularity, but because she is a Black woman—though her mother was Indian, Harris has always identified herself as Black because of her father’s African origin. As Vice-President, she has not exactly covered herself with glory. There have been media reports quoting anonymous sources that Biden is unhappy with her, but the same sources say that Biden fears losing Black votes if he drops her in 2024.

Republican Party Presidential hopefuls have also been seizing on the Harris factor. Several have claimed that if people vote for Biden, they are effectively voting for Harris to be the President of the United States. Donald Trump has welcomed the prospect of “running against Kamala”.

Of course, it all boils down to the fear that Trump could return to the White House. Biden believes that only he can stop that from happening, and as of now, the Democratic Party, at least officially, seems to agree.

Rumours began circulating some months ago that the party could convince Joe Biden to drop out and push Michelle Obama, the former US President’s wife, as its candidate. Since then, there has been a barrage of vicious personal attacks on the Obamas on social media from Trump supporters, including allegations that Michelle is not a biological woman!

We have seen India get increasingly polarized over the last decade, but the US may have got even more so since Trump won the 2016 Presidential election. And it’s going to only get nastier.