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In today’s newsletter: 

• US HIRE Bill clouds Indian IT outlook 
• PhonePe, GPay lose UPI ground
• EV makers gear up for festive charge

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When Washington sneezes, Bengaluru catches a cold.

The US Halting International Relocation of Employment (HIRE) Bill, proposing a 25% tax on payments to foreign firms for services consumed in America, has rattled India’s $280 billion IT industry. 

• Adding to the noise are tariff warnings from former Trump adviser Peter Navarro

Analysts dismiss the bill’s prospects, calling it “highly unlikely” given its potential to disrupt 70% of US corporations. 

Still, the rhetoric is enough to delay deal announcements, especially from US clients, even as large contracts continue to flow from Europe.

• Indian IT’s dependence on the US, where the top five firms earn 50-65% of revenues, makes it vulnerable 

Weak discretionary spending, AI-driven efficiency gains, and geopolitical tensions are already weighing on the sector.

Despite the political theatrics, experts agree that tariffs are unlikely in the near term. But uncertainty alone is proving costly. 

• Indian IT firms are facing rising US operational expenses, muted hiring, and cautious clients

Still, big tech bets on India continue, such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and others have collectively added 30,000 staff in India over the past year, cementing its role as a global tech hub.

Dig deeper

For years, UPI payments meant scanning with PhonePe or Google Pay.

• But slowly, small cashbacks and aggressive promos are nudging Indians to try newer apps... and the duopoly is starting to slip

Over the past year, PhonePe and Google Pay have shed 4 percentage points of UPI market share.

• PhonePe dropped from 48.4% in July 2024 to 45.8% in July 2025
  
  
• Google Pay slid 1.5 points to 35.5%

In January 2024, the top three apps—PhonePe, Google Pay and Paytm—processed 95.2% of all UPI transactions. By July 2025, that figure had dropped to 88.3%.

For a system moving 20 billion transactions worth Rs 25 lakh crore every month, this is a small but meaningful shift.

• NPCI, which runs UPI, has long wanted to reduce the dominance of any single app to below 30%

While PhonePe and Google Pay still process over 45% and 35% of transactions, respectively, the trend suggests their diversification efforts are starting to work.

The biggest gainers have been Sachin Bansal’s Navi, Flipkart-backed super.money and NPCI’s own BHIM app, helped by aggressive marketing and cashbacks.

• In 2024 alone, NPCI approved 20 new third-party app providers (TPAPs), adding fresh competition

Dig deeper

India's two-wheeler and three-wheeler EV makers are charging up for a festive push beyond metros.

Traditionally, October–November brings a 20–30% jump in two-wheeler sales, but this year the charge is different.

• Ola Electric, Ather Energy, TVS, Bajaj Auto, and a clutch of newer player,s such as Zelo Electric, Bounce, and Alt Mobility, are betting on Tier II and Tier III towns as the next growth frontier

Last year, festive buying triggered a 54% month-on-month surge in electric two-wheeler registrations, touching 1,39,022 units in October, as per Vahan data. 

• With EVs still in the 5% GST bracket, industry leaders believe the momentum could be stronger this time

Ola Electric has refreshed its S1 lineup and expanded its retail footprint, while Ather has unveiled new features for its Rizta family scooter and Apex models, along with festive financing tie-ups.

Instead of deep discounting, OEMs are turning to tailored products, smarter financing, and regional dealer networks to woo buyers.

"Traditionally, upfront cost had been the biggest barrier in smaller towns, but dynamic leasing models, longer tenures, and zero-down payment financing are unlocking affordability for a much wider consumer base," said Dev Arora, CEO of Alt Mobility.

Other players like Zelo Electric expect festive demand to drive a 20–25% jump in sales, while Zuge Electric and Bounce EV are rolling out city-specific offers, exchange programs, and new touchpoints to reach smaller-town buyers.

The shift beyond metros signals a structural change in India’s EV market. 

• A JMK Research paper shows EV penetration has reached 10.67% in Tier II and 8.68% in Tier III cities in 2025

Yet, challenges remain. The recent GST cut on petrol scooters, from 28% to 18%, narrows the upfront price gap. Still, executives point out that it also lowers EV makers’ input costs, potentially speeding up total cost of ownership parity.

Find out more 

• ElevenLabs is letting employees sell shares at a valuation of $6.6 billion - double the voice cloning artificial intelligence startup's previous value.
  
  
• AI Cloud service startup Neysa announced the expansion of its Velocis cloud platform catalogue to include OpenAI’s latest GPT-OSS models, alongside leading families of AI models such as Llama, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Mistral.

Think Delhi, Bengaluru, or Hyderabad lead India’s iPhone craze? Wrong.

Maharashtra reigns supreme, accounting for more than a quarter of all iPhones sold last year, with Gujarat (11%) and Delhi (10%) trailing behind.

• But desi buyers aren’t flashy

86% chose regular models, 128GB is the sweet spot, black is the favourite shade, and one in five traded in old phones. Find out more

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