Q4FY23 earnings season has broadly been in line with expectations but sector specific divergences were observed.
Overall earnings are expected to be led by the banking sector as it has been in an advantageous situation in current scenario where asset repricing has taken place and liabilities repricing is happening with a lag.
Varun Lohchab of HDFC Securities expects that the markets to respond favourably if the status quo is upheld for LTCG (long term capital gains).
Some of these stocks have all that an investor can ask for, viz., capital efficiency, visibility of earnings growth, and moderate leverage.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18's Sonia Shenoy & Reema Tendulkar, Varun Lohchab, MD & Head of Research at Religare Capital Markets, Abneesh Roy, Associate Director at Edelweiss Securities and Amnish Aggarwal, Senior VP-Research at Prabhudas Lilladher did review FMCG space for 2016 and how 2017 will pan out for the sector.
Unless currency disbursements improve and liquidity returns to the system quickly, the impact of demonetisation on economy and corporate performance could be much more severe than anticipated; that is the feedback from a survey done Religare Capital Markets through a road-trip that concluded recently.
Varun Lohchab, MD & Head, Research at Religare Capital Markets said that within the consume sector, it seems the new GST rates will be positive for ITC. For other FMCG items, it would depend on what slabs under which goods fall.
Varun Lohchab sees a same store sale growth (SSSG) at 5-6 percent for the next year for Jubilant Foodwork. He adds that Jubilant's growth in the second quarter has come at the cost of margins.
Earnings of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG)companies in the June quarter quarter is a clear reflection of this sentiment as most the players in this space have disappointed street estimates.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Varun Lohchab gave his analysis of HUL‘s first quarter earnings and shared his outlook on the FMCG industry in general.
Varun Lohchab, Head-India Research at CIMB Equities has a sell rating on HUL with a revised target price of Rs 740.
Varun Lohchab, Head-India Research at CIMB Equities has a buy rating on ITC.
ITC's cigarette volumes is likely to become favourable in the second half of current fiscal
Lohchab is of the view that advertising and promotional spends will continue to rise due to increasing competition and lower demand.
Varun Lohchab of CIMB Equities maintains a reduce or sell rating on HUL with target price at Rs 750 per share on expensive valuations.
Varun Lohchab of CIMB Equities expects ITC to post double digit volume decline in cigarettes. He also does not expect volume upticks for companies like Dabur, Colgate and Marico. But, according to him, HUL can post 3-4 percent volume growth.
CIMB downgraded other select consumer staples because according to him the recovery in terms of volume growth for HUL and others would be longer than expected.
CIMB retains hold on Marico, Jubilant Food, Britannia and Colgate
Varun Lohchab, Regional Head of Consumer at CIMB Equities prefers Marico and Britannia Industries.
According to Varun Lohchab, Regional Head of Consumer at CIMB Equities, one may buy Jubilant Foodworks.
Varun Lohchab, Regional Head of Consumer at CIMB Equities advises selling Godrej Consumer Products.
CIMB is expecting a contraction in the margins of the company going ahead and does not see any significant improvement over the next two-three years.
Given the lack of clarity in terms of core earnings, CIMB Equities has a reduced rating on USL after having a negative rating on the stock since 8 months.
CIMB Equities was already negative on the Asian Paints stock and continues to maintain a reduce rating. It has cut back earnings estimate by 6-7 percent with target price of Rs 475.
Varun Lohchab, Regional Head of Consumer at CIMB Equities suggests holding Emami for a target Rs 510.